2017 JGP Croatia Ladies Preview

The ladies event is very much up in the air when looking at qualification scenarios.  Emmy Ma and Stanislava Konstantinova both earned bronze medals this season but are not currently assigned to a second event.  However, their federations could change entries around to add them to the final two events of the season.  Other top ladies like Samodurova, Kasake, Matsubara, Kostornaia, and Vasilieva will be making their season debuts at one of these last events.  Some could earn a last minute second entry if they place well, some may be removed to give another competitor from their country a chance to make the Final, and some could just end up playing spoiler by taking a medal at their event.  These uncertainties make it more difficult to look at the potential matches and see exactly what each skater needs to earn their ticket to the Final, but there is some degree of certainty each lady can have based on their own placements.

Anastasia Tarakanova won the gold medal at JGP Austria.  Her short program combination is a triple flip + triple toe and she earned all positive GOEs at that event.  Even more impressive, she earned all Level 4s on her steps and spins and had three program component scores in the 7 range.  The technical content of her free skate is very difficult, with six jumping passes in the bonus and two triple + triple combinations.  Despite the difficult, she earned all positive GOEs for the program and all of her program components were in the 7 range.  She has the 2nd best short program, 2nd best free skate, and 2nd best total scores for the season.  She needs a gold, silver, or bronze medal to qualify for the Final.

Mako Yamashita won the bronze medal at JGP Austria.  Her short program combination is a triple flip + triple toe and she earned all positive GOEs on her elements.  The highest value element in her free skate is a triple lutz + triple toe + double toe with a base value of 11.60 points.  In Austria, she earned positive GOEs on this element, netting her 12.90 points total.  She only has four jumping elements in the bonus, and in Austria, three of those were deemed under-rotated.  She has the 5th best short program, 9th best free skate, and 8th best total scores.  She needs a gold medal to guarantee a spot in the Final.

Akari Matsuoka placed 4th at JGP Australia.  Her short program combination is a triple flip + triple toe but it was under-rotated in Brisbane.  She has two jumps in the bonus but she only earned Level 2 for her step sequence.  She did earn positive GOEs for everything except for the opening jump combo.  She has two triple lutz + triple toe combinations planned in her free skate, but both were under-rotated in Australia.  She has five jumping passes in the bonus and even had a few judges give her program components in the 7s.  A gold medal will keep her in the running for the Final.

Sofia Samodurova finished just off the podium in her lone JGP assignment last season.  If she can replicate those scores, she’ll be in the mix for the medal stand.  She is not currently assigned to a second event, but could be if she medals here.

Kaitlyn Nguyen did not place well enough in Australia to be in the qualification mix, but she could still factor into the top finishers here.  Her short program combination is a triple flip + triple toe but she fell on her triple lutz.  Everything else in the program earned positive GOEs with Level 4 spins but her step sequence was a Level 2.  Her free skate includes a triple lutz + single loop + triple salchow and a double axel + triple toe.  She had two under-rotated jumps in the program but five jumping passes in the bonus.

Young You is making her international debut at this event.  If she medals here, she has a chance to qualify for the Final in Italy.

 

My podium predictions:

Gold: Anastasia Tarakanova

Silver: Mako Yamashita

Bronze: Sofia Samodurova

 

Bios of the competitors:

Amelia Scarlett Jackson, AUS: She placed 13th at JGP Australia.  Her personal best is 113.86.  She is 16 years old.

Stefanie Pesendorfer, AUT: She finished 16th at JGP Austria.  Her personal best is 117.92.  She is 14 years old.

Eliza Pancheva, BUL

Emily Bausback, CAN: She placed 10th at JGP Japan and 13th at JGP Estonia last season.  Her personal best is 122.16.  She is 15 years old.

Hongyi Chen, CHN

Emma Jang, TPE: She placed 21st at JGP Czech Republic last season.  Her personal best is 96.31.  She is 18 years old.

Hana Cvijanovic, CRO: She finished 39th at Junior Worlds.  She placed 25th at JGP Austria.  Her personal best is 92.60.  She is 14 years old.

Katarina Kitarovic, CRO: This is her JGP debut.  She is 16 years old.

Patricia Skopancic, CRO: Her personal best is 61.21.  She is 16 years old.

Polina Ustinova, CYP: She placed 26th at JGP Russia last season.  Her personal best is 73.02.  She is 18 years old.

Sofia Sula, FIN

Lea Johanna Dastich, GER: She finished 8th at Junior Worlds.  She placed 8th at JGP Austria.  Her personal best is 157.11.  She is 17 years old.

Anastasia Vaipan-Law, GBR

Tsin Nam Nicole Chan, HKG

Margret Sol Torfadottir, ISL: This is her JGP debut.  She is 18 years old.

Savika Refa Zahira, INA

Elisabetta Leccardi, ITA: She placed 18th at Junior Worlds.  She finished 8th at JGP Japan last season.  Her personal best is 129.33.  She is 15 years old.

Akari Matsuoka, JPN: She finished 4th at JGP Australia.  Her personal best is 168.05.  She is 13 years old.

Mako Yamashita, JPN: She won bronze at JGP Austria.  Her personal best is 184.06.  She is 14 years old.

Gemma Marshall, LUX

Angela Prilepchanska, MKD

Andrea Montesinos Cantu, MEX: She finished 19th at Junior Worlds.  She placed 12th at JGP Australia.  Her personal best is 128.55.  She is 14 years old.

Hyun Soo Lee, KOR: She placed 8th at JGP Latvia.  Her personal best is 148.00.  She is 15 years old.

Young You, KOR

Ana Maria Ion, ROU: This is her JGP debut.  She is 15 years old.

Sofia Samodurova, RUS: She placed 4th at JGP Japan last season.  Her personal best is 180.69.  She is 15 years old.

Anastasia Tarakanova, RUS: She won gold at JGP Austria.  Her personal best is 196.98.  She is 13 years old.

Leona Rogic, SRB: She finished 28th at JGP Slovenia last season.  Her personal best is 81.43.  She is 14 years old.

Xin Yi Loke, SGP: She finished 33rd at JGP Slovenia last season.  Her personal best is 72.92.  She is 14 years old.

Silvia Hugec, SVK: She placed 12th at JGP Austria.  Her personal best is 147.14.  She is 16 years old.

Nina Polsak, SLO: She finished 44th at Junior Worlds.  She placed 23rd at JGP Slovenia last season.  Her personal best is 90.78.  She is 17 years old.

Noemie Bodenstein, SUI

Teekhree Silpa-Archa, THA

Elif Erdem, TUR: She placed 22nd at JGP Estonia last season.  Her personal best is 113.05.  She is 19 years old.

Kaitlyn Nguyen, USA: She placed 5th at JGP Australia.  Her personal best is 161.42.  She is 13 years old.

2017 JGP Australia Ladies Results

Short Program

 Pl. Name Nation TSS
=
TES
+
PCS
+
SS TR PE CO IN Ded.
StN.
1 Alexandra TRUSOVA RUS 65.57 39.46 26.11 6.50 6.39 6.71 6.54 6.50 0.00 #6
2 Anastasiia GULIAKOVA RUS 63.47 36.90 26.57 6.79 6.46 6.82 6.50 6.64 0.00 #23
3 Riko TAKINO JPN 60.55 35.46 25.09 6.29 6.00 6.43 6.36 6.29 0.00 #20
4 Akari MATSUOKA JPN 58.23 33.23 25.00 6.32 6.04 6.39 6.25 6.25 0.00 #12
5 Ting CUI USA 55.34 31.08 24.26 6.29 5.86 6.14 6.07 5.96 0.00 #13
6 Kaitlyn NGUYEN USA 54.27 32.04 23.23 5.89 5.64 5.86 5.86 5.79 1.00 #21
7 Su Been JEON KOR 46.74 27.89 19.85 5.21 4.68 4.96 5.04 4.93 1.00 #9
8 Eun Bi KO KOR 45.60 25.34 21.26 5.54 5.14 5.29 5.36 5.25 1.00 #10
9 Aurora COTOP CAN 43.39 22.56 21.83 5.64 5.18 5.36 5.54 5.57 1.00 #3
10 Amelia Scarlett JACKSON AUS 42.13 23.50 18.63 4.71 4.36 4.82 4.68 4.71 0.00 #5
11 Guzide Irmak BAYIR TUR 41.03 23.26 17.77 4.29 4.36 4.46 4.46 4.64 0.00 #2
12 Yi Christy LEUNG HKG 38.81 19.58 19.23 4.89 4.57 4.82 4.86 4.89 0.00 #18
13 Selma IHR SWE 37.98 21.86 18.12 4.61 4.43 4.50 4.57 4.54 2.00 #19
14 Aleksandra SHLAHOVA LAT 37.70 20.36 17.34 4.39 4.11 4.43 4.46 4.29 0.00 #22
15 Andrea MONTESINOS CANTU MEX 37.66 20.14 18.52 4.75 4.36 4.75 4.61 4.68 1.00 #16
16 Amy LIN TPE 36.50 18.79 19.71 5.18 4.71 4.82 5.00 4.93 2.00 #17
17 Serena XU AUS 35.52 18.66 16.86 4.25 3.96 4.32 4.21 4.32 0.00 #14
18 Jordan LAZARUS AUS 32.41 16.83 15.58 3.86 3.71 4.07 3.82 4.00 0.00 #1
19 Nicola KORCK NZL 28.79 13.78 15.01 3.79 3.50 3.86 3.82 3.79 0.00 #24
20 Ching Ting SU SGP 28.66 14.41 15.25 4.00 3.71 3.89 3.82 3.64 1.00 #8
21 Sophie ABRAMS ISR 27.27 11.73 17.54 4.46 4.21 4.25 4.57 4.43 2.00 #15
22 Bianca Arianne VINARAO PHI 21.88 11.76 10.12 2.68 2.36 2.46 2.61 2.54 0.00 #7
23 Maria BLESSIA INA 14.92 5.63 10.29 2.79 2.39 2.61 2.57 2.50 1.00 #4
24 Arunima VERABELLI IND 6.22 1.31 4.91 1.21 1.00 1.39 1.29 1.25 0.00 #11

Free Skate

 Pl. Name Nation TSS
=
TES
+
PCS
+
SS TR PE CO IN Ded.
StN.
1 Alexandra TRUSOVA RUS 132.12 75.62 56.50 7.07 6.89 7.18 7.14 7.04 0.00 #22
2 Anastasiia GULIAKOVA RUS 117.96 63.05 55.91 6.96 6.57 7.14 7.14 7.14 1.00 #23
3 Riko TAKINO JPN 113.61 59.29 54.32 6.79 6.57 6.89 6.82 6.89 0.00 #24
4 Akari MATSUOKA JPN 109.82 58.59 51.23 6.46 6.14 6.57 6.39 6.46 0.00 #19
5 Kaitlyn NGUYEN USA 107.15 57.78 49.37 6.29 5.93 6.14 6.21 6.29 0.00 #20
6 Aurora COTOP CAN 96.75 48.93 47.82 5.89 5.68 6.11 6.07 6.14 0.00 #18
7 Ting CUI USA 95.61 47.20 49.41 6.39 6.00 6.14 6.29 6.07 1.00 #21
8 Su Been JEON KOR 93.00 48.24 44.76 5.79 5.29 5.75 5.61 5.54 0.00 #16
9 Eun Bi KO KOR 86.33 43.69 43.64 5.64 5.25 5.46 5.54 5.39 1.00 #17
10 Selma IHR SWE 83.99 44.87 40.12 5.21 4.86 5.11 5.00 4.89 1.00 #7
11 Guzide Irmak BAYIR TUR 83.75 43.92 39.83 4.96 4.75 5.18 5.07 4.93 0.00 #13
12 Andrea MONTESINOS CANTU MEX 77.13 39.52 39.61 5.11 4.68 5.00 4.96 5.00 2.00 #12
13 Amelia Scarlett JACKSON AUS 71.73 33.43 39.30 4.71 4.71 5.07 5.00 5.07 1.00 #14
14 Sophie ABRAMS ISR 71.04 34.91 37.13 4.68 4.57 4.64 4.64 4.68 1.00 #1
15 Yi Christy LEUNG HKG 69.07 34.75 38.32 5.14 4.82 4.57 4.79 4.64 4.00 #15
16 Amy LIN TPE 65.41 32.08 37.33 4.86 4.39 4.61 4.68 4.79 4.00 #8
17 Jordan LAZARUS AUS 63.80 29.07 34.73 4.29 4.00 4.57 4.39 4.46 0.00 #10
18 Aleksandra SHLAHOVA LAT 62.01 29.15 33.86 4.46 4.14 4.21 4.21 4.14 1.00 #9
19 Serena XU AUS 59.97 28.41 32.56 4.11 3.82 4.14 4.21 4.07 1.00 #11
20 Nicola KORCK NZL 57.45 27.64 30.81 3.86 3.54 4.04 3.93 3.89 1.00 #3
21 Ching Ting SU SGP 49.72 19.48 30.24 3.75 3.54 3.89 3.86 3.86 0.00 #6
22 Maria BLESSIA INA 36.29 14.55 22.74 2.96 2.71 2.82 2.93 2.79 1.00 #4
23 Bianca Arianne VINARAO PHI 34.49 13.62 22.87 3.04 2.68 2.86 3.00 2.71 2.00 #2
24 Arunima VERABELLI IND 10.11 1.85 9.26 1.25 0.93 1.18 1.29 1.14 1.00 #5

Total

FPl. Name Nation Points SP FS
1 Alexandra TRUSOVA
RUS
197.69 1 1
2 Anastasiia GULIAKOVA
RUS
181.43 2 2
3 Riko TAKINO
JPN
174.16 3 3
4 Akari MATSUOKA
JPN
168.05 4 4
5 Kaitlyn NGUYEN
USA
161.42 6 5
6 Ting CUI
USA
150.95 5 7
7 Aurora COTOP
CAN
140.14 9 6
8 Su Been JEON
KOR
139.74 7 8
9 Eun Bi KO
KOR
131.93 8 9
10 Guzide Irmak BAYIR
TUR
124.78 11 11
11 Selma IHR
SWE
121.97 13 10
12 Andrea MONTESINOS CANTU
MEX
114.79 15 12
13 Amelia Scarlett JACKSON
AUS
113.86 10 13
14 Yi Christy LEUNG
HKG
107.88 12 15
15 Amy LIN
TPE
101.91 16 16
16 Aleksandra SHLAHOVA
LAT
99.71 14 18
17 Sophie ABRAMS
ISR
98.31 21 14
18 Jordan LAZARUS
AUS
96.21 18 17
19 Serena XU
AUS
95.49 17 19
20 Nicola KORCK
NZL
86.24 19 20
21 Ching Ting SU
SGP
78.38 20 21
22 Bianca Arianne VINARAO
PHI
56.37 22 23
23 Maria BLESSIA
INA
51.21 23 22
24 Arunima VERABELLI
IND
16.33 24 24

2017 JGP Australia Ladies Preview

This is a very young and inexperienced field, with 16 of the 24 competitors making their international or Junior Grand Prix debut.

The triple + triple is key for the ladies and they’ll want one in their short programs and at least two in their free skates.  The required solo jump for the juniors in the short program this season is the triple lutz.  Top competitors will likely be attempting triple flip + triple toes in their short for the required combination jump.

Yi Christy Leung is the highest ranking competitor from last season at this event.  She placed 9th at Junior Worlds, setting personal bests in all segments of the competition.  It was by far her best competition of the year, as she placed just 10th at JGP Germany.  She has competed once this season, placing a disappointing 6th at the Asian Open, over 20 points lower than her Junior Worlds score but equivalent to the mark she set in Germany.

Riko Takino finished 6th as a junior at Japanese nationals.  She has one prior international assignment, the Bavarian Open, where she finished 2nd in the junior ladies event.

Ting Cui made her international debut earlier this summer at the Philadelphia International Competition where she scored just over 150 points.  She won the silver medal as a novice at US nationals last year, and is competing at the junior level for the first time.

Then there are the ladies who are competing for the first time, hoping to make a name for themselves.  Over the past few seasons Russian and Japanese ladies have absolutely dominated the junior circuit, and there is no indication that this year is going to be any different.

Alexandra Trusova just barely qualified to compete this season, turning 13 just a week before the July 1st deadline.  She finished 4th at Russian Junior Nationals last year, less than 6 points from the medal stand and just behind three ladies who all finished in the top 10 at Junior Worlds.  She is a great jumper, and has landed quad salchows in practice.

Anastasiia Guliakova finished 8th at Russian nationals as a junior last season.  While she was over 10 points back from Trusova, she still put up a respectable score and even placed ahead of Trusova in the short program.

Akari Matsuoka finished 12th at Japanese nationals in the junior event.  Her score was significantly lower than the Russian ladies, however it is difficult to compare nationals scores directly.  She had a much stronger free skate at that event, finishing 10th in that segment.

Kaitlyn Nguyen is the reigning US Junior Ladies champion.  She was not old enough to compete internationally as a junior last season, but was sent to Golden Bear as a novice and took home the gold medal.

 

My podium predictions:

Gold: Alexandra Trusova

Silver: Riko Takino

Bronze: Anastasiia Guliakova

 

Bios of the competitors:

Amelia Scarlett Jackson, AUS: She placed 20th at JGP Estonia last season.  Her personal best is 99.21.  She is 16 years old.

Jordan Lazarus, AUS: This is her international debut.

Serena Xu, AUS: This is her JGP debut.  She is 18 years old.

Aurora Cotop, CAN: This is her JGP debut.  She is 15 years old.

Amy Lin, TPE: She finished 28th at Worlds, 17th at Four Continents, and 21st at Junior Worlds.  Her personal best is 155.61.  She is 17 years old.

Yi Christy Leung, HKG: She finished 9th at Junior Worlds.  She placed 10th at JGP Germany last season.  Her personal best is 156.26.  She is 14 years old.

Arunima Verabelli, IND: This is her international debut.

Maria Blessia, INA: This is her JGP debut.  She is 17 years old.

Sophie Abrams, ISR: She placed 14th at JGP Russia last season.  Her personal best is 106.94.  She is 15 years old.

Akari Matsuoka, JPN: This is her international debut.

Riko Takino, JPN: This is her JGP debut.

Aleksandra Shlahova, LAT: She placed 16th at JGP Japan last season.  Her personal best is 87.57.  She is 15 years old.

Andrea Montesinos Cantu, MEX: She finished 19th at Junior Worlds.  She placed 9th at JGP Japan last season.  Her personal best is 128.55.  She is 14 years old.

Nicola Korck, NZL: This is her JGP debut.  She is 14 years old.

Bianca Arianne Vinarao, PHI: She finished 21st at JGP Japan last season.  Her personal best is 60.94.  She is 18 years old.

Su Been Jeon, KOR: This is her JGP debut.  She is 14 years old.

Eun Bi Ko, KOR: This is her JGP debut.  She is 14 years old.

Anastasiia Guliakova, RUS: This is her international debut.  She is 14 years old.

Alexandra Trusova, RUS: This is her international debut.  She is 13 years old.

Ching Ting Su, SGP: This is her JGP debut.  She is 17 years old.

Selma Ihr, SWE: This is her international debut.

Guzide Irmak Bayir, TUR: She finished 22nd at Junior Worlds.  This is her JGP debut.  Her personal best is 123.23.  She is 15 years old.

Ting Cui, USA: This is her JGP debut.

Kaitlyn Nguyen, USA: This is her international debut.