2018 US Nationals Senior Men’s Preview

As a group, these men have won 71 national medals.  They have earned three medals at Four Continents and seven World Junior medals.  They won 7 medals on the Grand Prix and 6 medals on the Junior Grand Prix this season in addition to 7 medals in the Challenger Series.  The 1st, 2nd 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th, 11th, 13th, 14th, 15th, 16th, 20th, 21st  place finishers from last year are returning along with the  and  1st place junior finishers.

For these men to compete at the international level, they need a quad in their short program and at least two in their free skate in addition to consistent triple axels, solid spins and program components in the 8s or higher.  Internationally, they need 90+ points in the short program, 176+ in the free skate and 261+ total.  The short program will be held on Thursday, January 4th with the free skate on Saturday, January 6th.

The men’s field is one of the more competitive and deep in the US right now, with five different men holding top ten scores and three men qualifying for the Grand Prix Final.  Three additional men in this field hold top ten junior scores, and two qualified for the Grand Prix Final.  In this field are the reigning Grand Prix Final and reigning Junior Grand Prix Final Champions.

Nathan Chen is the reigning national Champion and has not lost an event this season, defeating Yuzuru Hanyu and Shoma Uno in head to head events.  No matter what happens here, he should receive a spot on the Olympic team based on his resume the last two seasons, however, it would be a shock for him to not win, let alone miss the top three.  He holds the 2nd best total score internationally, but his best segment scores were set at different events.  The only thing he hasn’t done this season is break the 300 point mark, and that would be a big step for him at this event heading into the Olympics.  His short program has been the same throughout the season with a quad lutz + triple toe and quad flip and triple axel in the bonus.  He has been messing with his free skate layout, but as of now it looks like the quad salchow will be out of the program and he’ll be going for just 5 quads.  His most recent layout had a quad lutz + triple toe, quad flip, and quad lutz, quad toe + single loop + double salchow, and quad toe in the bonus.

Adam Rippon holds the 7th best total score internationally and won two medals en route to qualifying for the Grand Prix Final this season.  His short program has a triple flip + triple toe, triple axel, and triple lutz in the bonus.  He has been going for the quad lutz all season in the free skate, but hasn’t hit it so far.  He’s had some under-rotations and some downgrades, but usually stands up on it.  His success is largely due to skating clean programs after the quad with all positive GOEs, Level 4s and great program component marks.

Max Aaron won one medal on the Grand Prix this season and has the 9th best international score of the season, however his best segments were set at different events.  His short program has a quad toe + triple toe, quad salchow, and a triple axel in the bonus.  His free skate has a quad toe + double toe, quad salchow, and a quad toe in the bonus along with two triple axels.

Jason Brown has the 10th best score internationally this season, but his best segment scores came from different events.  He qualified for his first Grand Prix Final this season after Boyang Jin had to withdraw.  He hasn’t been including the quad in his programs at all, except for earlier this season but has been practicing it in San Jose.  His short program has a triple axel, triple flip + triple toe, and a triple lutz in the bonus.  A free skate with a quad would likely have a quad toe as the first jump with his triple axel + triple toe, triple lutz + half loop + triple salchow, and triple lutz + triple toe combinations in the bonus.

Vincent Zhou has the 10th best free skate internationally.  While he finished 2nd at Nationals last season, he was left off the World team as he didn’t have the required minimum scores, but he did take home the Junior World title.  His short program includes a quad lutz + triple toe, quad flip, and a triple axel in the bonus.  Like Chen, he is planning a five quad free skate with a quad lutz + triple toe, quad flip, quad salchow + double toe, and a quad toe and quad lutz in the bonus.  He also has an extremely difficult triple lutz + single loop + triple flip combination as the last jump in his free skate.

A few junior international skaters are competing at this event, and while the podium may be out of reach, they’re competing for a spot on the Junior Worlds team and setting themselves up for the post Olympic period.

Alexei Krasnozhon holds the best short program, 2nd best free skate, and best total scores as a Junior this season.  He is undefeated at the junior level and is the reigning Junior Grand Prix Final Champion.  He has one quad in his junior level free skate and it will be interesting to see what he does here for a senior level program.

Andrew Torgashev holds the 8th best total score internationally as a junior, and had a great season qualifying for the Junior Grand Prix Final, however his scores got worst as the season went on, and he scored under 200 points at the Final.

Tomoki Hiwatshi did not qualify for the Final, but he did win two medals on the Junior Grand Prix and has the 10th best score this season.  He is a former World Junior medalist, but hasn’t had as much success nationally the last few years.

With all of these quads, clean programs have been hard to come by this season, and most skaters have been tweaking their programs, changing the quads or rearranging the layouts, which means the muscle memory is not as high.  But by this point in the season, we should be expecting to see clean programs.

Nathan Chen has the highest planned base value for jumps in the short program with 40.78 points.  Vincent Zhou is a close second with 39.55 points.  Of the top five men competing, Rippon and Brown sit way back, each with a base value of 24.70 points.  If everyone hits their jumps cleanly, Rippon and Brown need 16 more points from GOEs and PCS than Chen and Zhou receive which would be almost impossible.

The difference is even more glaring in the free skate where Zhou has a planned base value of 97 points and Chen has a base value of 86 (largely due to a double salchow he had at his last two events while he was trying for a quad salchow and will likely be replaced with a higher value jump).  Rippon, Aaron, and Brown (if he goes for the quad toe) are all on equal footing around 71-74 points.

If Brown goes for the quad toe in the free skate, his total base value for all the jumps in both his short program and free skate is 95.44 points.  Zhou’s planned base value for his free skate alone is nearly 2 points higher.  However, jumps are only part of the game and Zhou did not win a medal on the Grand Prix while Brown qualified for the Final.

Chen’s short programs have largely been solid this season, and he has the three highest total element scores for the short program, never dropping below 57 points, and over 10 points better than the next best competitor’s cleanest program.  Zhou has been all over the map, posting the 2nd highest score after Chen with 45.66 points and the lowest of the top 5 men at 32.12 points.

For program components, Chen again has the highest score, just over 45 points, but all three of Jason Brown’s scores come next and are within .3 of a point of each other.  Zhou holds the two lowest program component scores of any of these men.

In the free skate, Zhou and Chen are the only two to score about 100 points on their elements, while Aaron and Rippon have each scored above 90.  Brown has the three lowest technical scores, with his highest barely reaching the 80s.  However, Brown holds the top three program component scores and is the only one of the US men to top 90.  Rippon and Chen come next and again, Vincent Zhou has the two lowest scores.

For Zhou the most concerning thing is that he was able to skate a decent free skate and score over 100 points on the technical side on the free, still considered a gold standard to achieve, yet he was not able to win a medal.  He has never skated a clean short this season and often finds himself digging out of a hole, and his program component scores are not doing him any favors.  However, if he skates a clean program with five quads in front of his home crowd, he might see inflated PCS marks.

 

Short Program TES

Nathan Chen: 59.56 (SA)

Nathan Chen: 58.14 (GPF)

Nathan Chen: 57.57 (RC)

Vincent Zhou: 45.66 (CoC)

Jason Brown: 45.64 (SC)

Adam Rippon: 45.04 (SA)

Max Aaron: 44.50 (CoC)

Jason Brown: 44.30 (GPF)

Adam Rippon: 43.16 (NHK)

Adam Rippon: 42.59 (GPF)

Max Aaron: 41.54 (IDF)

Jason Brown: 40.58 (NHK)

Vincent Zhou: 32.12 (IDF)

Short Program PCS

Nathan Chen: 45.18 (GPF)

Jason Brown: 45.07 (SC)

Jason Brown: 44.78 (NHK)

Jason Brown: 44.72 (GPF)

Nathan Chen: 44.56 (SA)

Adam Rippon: 44.00 (SA)

Adam Rippon: 43.60 (GPF)

Nathan Chen: 42.97 (RC)

Adam Rippon: 41.79 (NHK)

Max Aaron: 38.61 (CoC)

Max Aaron: 38.10 (IDF)

Vincent Zhou: 36.57 (CoC)

Vincent Zhou: 36.00 (IDF)

Free Skate TES

Nathan Chen: 104.85 (RC)

Vincent Zhou: 102.35 (RC)

Max Aaron: 96.60 (CoC)

Nathan Chen: 95.75 (GPF)

Adam Rippon: 91.46 (NHK)

Adam Rippon: 88.91 (SA)

Vincent Zhou: 88.57 (IDF)

Nathan Chen: 86.68 (SA)

Max Aaron: 82.70 (IDF)

Adam Rippon: 81.78 (GPF)

Jason Brown: 80.77 (SC)

Jason Brown: 75.71 (GPF)

Jason Brown: 72.73 (NHK)

Free Skate PCS

Jason Brown: 90.66 (SC)

Jason Brown: 90.08 (GPF)

Jason Brown: 89.86 (NHK)

Adam Rippon: 88.50 (SA)

Nathan Chen: 88.44 (GPF)

Nathan Chen: 88.40 (RC)

Adam Rippon: 87.36 (GPF)

Nathan Chen: 87.08 (SA)

Adam Rippon: 85.58 (NHK)

Max Aaron: 79.98 (CoC)

Max Aaron: 75.86 (IDF)

Vincent Zhou: 75.08 (CoC)

Vincent Zhou: 69.52 (IDF)

 

My podium predictions:

Gold: Nathan Chen

Silver: Adam Rippon

Bronze: Vincent Zhou

Pewter: Jason Brown

 

Bios of the competitors:

Max Aaron: He is 25 years old and represents the Broadmoor Skating Club.  He won bronze at Cup of China and placed 7th at Internationaux de France.  He won silver at the US International Figure Skating Classic.  He finished 9th last season, is the 2016 Silver Medalist, 2015 Pewter Medalist, 2014 Bronze Medalist, 2013 Champion, finished 8th in seniors in 2012, is the 2011 Junior Champion, 2010 Junior Bronze Medalist, finished 13th in juniors in 2008, 5th in novice in 2007, is the 2006 Intermediate Bronze Medalist and the 2005 Juvenile Champion.  He has the 9th best free skate and 9th best total scores internationally.

Jason Brown: He is 23 and represents the Skokie Valley Skating Club.  He finished 7th at Worlds and 6th at Four Continents last season.  He won silver at Skate Canada and placed 4th at NHK Trophy to qualify for the Grand Prix Final where he finished 6th.  He won silver at Lombardia Trophy.  He is the 2013 Junior Worlds Silver Medalist and the 2012 Junior Worlds Bronze Medalist.  He is the reigning Bronze Medalist, 2015 Champion, 2014 Silver Medalist, finished 8th in 2013, 9th in 2012, 7th in 2011, is the 2010 Junior Champion, 2009 Novice Bronze Medalist, 2008 Intermediate Silver Medalist and 2007 Juvenile Champion.  He has the 9th best short program, 8th best free skate, and 10th best total scores internationally.

Nathan Chen: He is 18 years old and represents the Salt Lake Figure Skating Club.  He finished 6th at Worlds and is the reigning Four Continents Champion.  He won gold at Rostelecom Cup and gold at Skate America to qualify for the Grand Prix Final where he won gold.  He won gold at the US International Figure Skating Classic.  He is the 2014 World Junior Bronze Medalist.  He is the reigning Champion, 2016 Silver Medalist, finished 8th in 2015, is the 2014 Junior Champion, 2013 Junior Bronze Medalist, 2012 Junior Champion, 2011 Novice Champion, 201o Novice Champion, 2009 Intermediate Silver Medalist, 2008 Juvenile Bronze Medalist and placed 10th as a juvenile in 2007.  He has the 4th best short program, 3rd best free skate, and 2nd best total scores internationally.

Timothy Dolensky: He is 25 and represents the Atlanta Figure Skating Club.  He placed 6th at the US International Figure Skating Classic.  He finished 7th last season, 7th in 2016, 14th in 2015, 13th in 2014, is the 2012 Junior Silver Medalist, 2010 Novice Bronze Medalist, finished 15th in intermediate in 2007, 15th in intermediate in 2006 and 9th in juvenile in 2005.

Scott Dyer: He is 26 and represents the All Year Figure Skating Club.  He placed 14th last season, 11th in 2016, 18th in 2014, 10th in 2012, 13th in 2011, is the 2010 Junior Pewter Medalist, the 2007 Novice Pewter Medalist and the 2006 Novice Pewter Medalist.  He won gold at Southwest Pacific Regionals and bronze at Pacific Coast Sectionals to qualify for nationals.

Tomoki Hiwatshi: He is 17 years old and competes for the DuPage Figure Skating Club.  He won bronze at JGP Latvia and bronze at JGP Italy.  He is the 2016 World Junior Bronze Medalist.  He finished 15th last season, is the 2016 Junior Champion, finished 5th in juniors in 2015, is the 2013 Novice Champion, 2012 Intermediate Champion, the 2011 Juvenile Champion and finished 6th in Juvenile Boys in 2010.  He has the 10th best short program and 10th best total scores internationally as a junior.

Grant Hochstein: He is 27 and represents the Skating Club of New York.  He finished 9th at Four Continents last season.  He placed 11th at Rostelecom Cup and 9th at Cup of China.  He placed 4th at Ondrej Nepela Trophy.  He is the reigning Pewter Medalist, 2016 Pewter Medalist, finished 9th in 2015, 11th in 2014, 15th in 2013, 12th in 2012, 12th in 2011, 7th in 2010, is the 2009 Junior Pewter Medalist, finished 11th in junior in 2008, 12th in juniors in 2007, 8th in novice in 2005, is the 2004 Intermediate Pewter Medalist, and finished 10th in juvenile in 2003.

Ben Jalovick: He is 24 years old and represents the Centennial 7k Skating Club.  He finished 15th in seniors in 2016, 11th in juniors in 2015, 11th as a junior in 2014 and 17th as an intermediate in 2011.  He won gold at Southwestern Regionals and pewter at Midwestern Sectionals to qualify for nationals.

Alexander Johnson: He is 27 and represents the Braemar-City of Lakes Figure Skating Club.  He won silver at Nebelhorn Trophy and finished 9th at Golden Spin of Zagbreb.  He finished 6th last season, 6th in 2016, 11th in 2015, 7th in 2013, 15th in 2012, 17th in 2010, is the 2009 Junior Bronze Medalist, finished 7th in juniors in 2008, is the 2007 Novice Silver Medalist, finished 9th in novice in 2006, 5th in intermediate in 2005, 13th in intermediate in 2004, 12th in juvenile in 2003 and 16th in juvenile in 2002.  He won gold at Midwestern Sectionals to qualify for nationals.

Alexei Krasnozhon: He is 17 years old and represents the Dallas Figure Skating Club.  He placed 8th at Junior Worlds.  He won gold at JGP Croatia and gold at JGP Australia to qualify for the Junior Grand Prix Final were he won gold.  He won silver at Tallinn Trophy.  He is the reigning Junior Champion, 2016 Junior Bronze Medalist, and 2015 Junior Pewter Medalist.  He has the best short program, 2nd best free skate, and best total scores internationally as a junior.

Daniel Kulenkamp: He is 22 years old and competes for the Figure Skating Club of Southern California.  He finished 16th last season, 10th in 2016, 8th in juniors in 2015, 13th as a junior in 2014, 5th as a novice in 2013 and 12th in intermediates in 2011.  He won silver at Pacific Coast Sectionals to qualify for nationals.

Jimmy Ma: He is 22 years old and represents the Ice House of New Jersey Figure Skating Club.  He finished 20th last season, 16th in 2016, 18th in 2015, is the 2014 Junior Bronze Medalist, 2013 Junior Pewter Medalist, finished 5th as a novice in 2012 and 14th as an intermediate in 2010.  He won bronze at Eastern Sectionals to qualify for nationals.

Ross Miner: He is 26 and represents the Skating Club of Boston.  He finished 6th at Skate America.  He placed 6th at the Autumn Classic International and 5th at Finlandia Trophy.  He is the 2012 Four Continents Bronze Medalist.  He finished 5th last season, 5th in 2016, 6th in 2015, 7th in 2014, is the 2013 Silver Medalist, 2012 Bronze Medalist, 2011 Bronze Medalist, 2009 Junior Champion, 2008 Novice Silver Medalist, 2006 Intermediate Champion and finished 8th in intermediate in 2005.

Jordan Moeller: He is 22 years old and represents the Northern Ice Skating Club.  He placed 10th at Lombardia Trophy.  He finished 10th last season, 13th in 2015, is the 2014 Junior Silver Medalist, 2013 Junior Pewter Medalist, finished 5th as a novice in 2012 and 14th as an intermediate in 2010.  He won bronze at Midwestern Sectionals to qualify for nationals.

Sebastien Payannet: He is 23 and represents the Los Angeles Figure Skating Club.  He finished 21st last season, 14th in 2016, and 20th in 2015.  He won silver at Southwest Pacific Regionals and pewter at Pacific Coast Sectionals to qualify for nationals.

Sean Rabbitt: He is 27 and represents the Glacier Falls Figure Skating Club.  He placed 8th at the US International Figure Skating Classic.  He finished 8th last season, 9th in 2016, 12th in 2015, 14th in 2014 and 19th in 2013.  He won gold at Pacific Coast Sectionals to qualify for nationals.

Adam Rippon: He is 28 and represents the Skating Club of New York.  He won silver at NHK Trophy and silver at Skate America to qualify for the Grand Prix Final where he placed 5th.  He won bronze at Finlandia Trophy.  He is the 2010 Four Continents Champion and the 2008 and 2009 World Junior Champion.  He is the 2016 Champion, 2015 Silver Medalist, placed 8th in 2014, 5th in 2013, is the 2012 Silver Medalist, finished 5th in 2011, 5th in 2010, 7th in 2009, is the 2008 Junior Champion, finished 6th in juniors in 2007, 11th in juniors in 2006, is the 2005 Novice Silver Medalist, finished 6th in intermediate in 2004 and 7th in juvenile in 2003.  He has the 7th best free skate and 7th best total scores internationally.

Emmanuel Savary: He is 20 years old and represents the University of Delaware Figure Skating Club.  He finished 13th last season, 13th in 2016, 12th in juniors in 2012, 5th in juniors in 2011, is the 2010 Novice Silver Medalist, 2009 Intermediate Champion and 6th in Juvenile in 2007.  He won pewter at Eastern Sectionals to qualify for nationals.

Kevin Shum: He is 20 years old and represents the Skating Club of Boston.  He is the 2015 and 2016 Junior Silver Medalist, finished 6th in juniors in 2014, is the 2012 Novice Pewter Medalist, finished 9th as a novice in 2011 and 6th as an intermediate in 2010.  He won silver at Eastern Sectionals to qualify for nationals.

Andrew Torgashev: He is 16 years old and represents the Panthers Figure Skating Club.  He placed 25th at Junior Worlds last season.  He won silver at JGP Belarus and placed 4th at JGP Italy to qualify for the Junior Grand Prix Final where he placed 6th.  He placed 6th at the Warsaw Cup.  He finished 11th last season, is the 2015 Junior Champion, 2014 Novice Pewter Medalist, 2013 Intermediate Men’s Champion, 2012 Juvenile Boys Champion and 2011 Juvenile Boys Bronze Medalist.  He has the 9th best short program, 8th best free skate, and 8th best total scores internationally as a junior.

Vincent Zhou: He is 17 years old and represents the Broadmoor Skating Club.  He is the reigning World Junior Champion.  He placed 4th at Cup of China and 9th at Internationaux de France.  He won silver at Finlandia Trophy.  He is the reigning Silver Medalist, finished 8th in 2016, is the 2013 Junior Champion, 2012 Novice Champion, 2011 Intermediate Champion and placed 5th in juvenile in 2010.  He has the 10th best free skate score internationally.

2017 Junior Grand Prix Final Men’s Results

Short Program

PL. Name Nation TSS TES PCS SS TR PE CO IN Deduction StN.
1 Alexei KRASNOZHON  USA 81.33 45.26 36.07 7.25 6.93 7.39 7.25 7.25 0.00 #5
2 Alexey EROKHOV  RUS 78.39 42.72 35.67 7.25 6.96 7.21 7.18 7.07 0.00 #6
3 Mitsuki SUMOTO  JPN 77.10 41.73 35.37 7.04 6.86 7.25 7.18 7.04 0.00 #3
4 Makar IGNATOV  RUS 75.78 40.67 35.11 7.07 6.79 7.11 7.07 7.07 0.00 #2
5 Camden PULKINEN  USA 70.90 35.57 35.33 7.11 6.86 7.11 7.18 7.07 0.00 #4
6 Andrew TORGASHEV  USA 64.73 31.01 33.72 6.86 6.64 6.54 6.86 6.82 0.00 #1

Free Skate

PL. Name Nation TSS TES PCS SS TR PE CO IN Deduction StN.
1 Alexei KRASNOZHON  USA 155.02 82.88 72.14 7.29 7.00 7.36 7.21 7.21 0.00 #5
2 Camden PULKINEN  USA 146.20 75.48 70.72 7.14 6.82 7.18 7.11 7.11 0.00 #2
3 Mitsuki SUMOTO  JPN 137.35 67.69 70.66 7.11 6.93 7.07 7.18 7.04 1.00 #6
4 Makar IGNATOV  RUS 136.21 70.13 67.08 6.93 6.54 6.68 6.75 6.64 1.00 #3
5 Alexey EROKHOV  RUS 128.65 65.43 65.22 6.93 6.36 6.46 6.54 6.32 2.00 #4
6 Andrew TORGASHEV  USA 95.76 38.76 60.00 6.46 6.04 5.36 6.21 5.93 3.00 #1

Total

PL Name Nation SP FS Points
1. Alexei KRASNOZHON  USA 1 1 236.35
2. Camden PULKINEN  USA 5 2 217.10
3. Mitsuki SUMOTO  JPN 3 3 214.45
4. Makar IGNATOV  RUS 4 4 211.99
5. Alexey EROKHOV  RUS 2 5 207.04
6. Andrew TORGASHEV  USA 6 6 160.49

2017 JGP Croatia Men’s Results

Short Program

Pl. Name Nation TSS
=
TES
+
PCS
+
SS TR PE CO IN Ded.
StN.
1 Alexei KRASNOZHON USA 80.26 45.25 35.01 6.86 6.75 7.36 6.93 7.11 0.00 #17
2 Joseph PHAN CAN 76.09 43.17 32.92 6.64 6.25 6.71 6.64 6.68 0.00 #8
3 Mitsuki SUMOTO JPN 73.18 40.90 32.28 6.64 6.43 6.50 6.39 6.32 0.00 #13
4 Makar IGNATOV RUS 72.00 40.35 32.65 6.61 6.39 6.43 6.61 6.61 1.00 #12
5 Basar OKTAR TUR 67.08 38.77 28.31 5.64 5.43 5.82 5.71 5.71 0.00 #22
6 Koshiro SHIMADA JPN 64.85 34.52 30.33 6.11 5.93 6.07 6.04 6.18 0.00 #16
7 Artur DANIELIAN RUS 61.31 33.78 29.53 5.96 5.86 5.89 5.93 5.89 2.00 #14
8 Adam SIAO HIM FA FRA 61.28 32.90 28.38 5.75 5.46 5.75 5.71 5.71 0.00 #18
9 Geon Hyeong AN KOR 58.36 30.42 27.94 5.79 5.57 5.54 5.54 5.50 0.00 #6
10 Yan HAO CHN 56.94 29.19 29.75 6.25 5.82 5.79 5.96 5.93 2.00 #11
11 Davide LEWTON BRAIN MON 54.74 27.45 27.29 5.43 5.29 5.46 5.50 5.61 0.00 #5
12 Guko ENDO USA 53.30 25.38 28.92 5.64 5.71 5.93 5.75 5.89 1.00 #19
13 Nik FOLINI ITA 51.65 22.76 28.89 5.82 5.68 5.57 5.75 6.07 0.00 #7
14 Micah Kai LYNETTE THA 50.56 27.43 23.13 4.89 4.46 4.64 4.64 4.50 0.00 #2
15 Josh BROWN GBR 46.12 22.91 24.21 4.86 4.68 4.89 4.89 4.89 1.00 #15
16 Nika EGADZE GEO 44.08 21.71 23.37 4.86 4.61 4.50 4.79 4.61 1.00 #10
17 Jakub KRSNAK SVK 43.11 22.21 20.90 4.29 4.07 4.29 4.04 4.21 0.00 #3
18 Charles Henry KATANOVIC CRO 43.02 21.66 21.36 4.39 4.25 4.25 4.29 4.18 0.00 #1
19 Aleix GABARA ESP 39.93 17.57 24.36 4.86 4.89 4.75 4.93 4.93 2.00 #20
20 James THOMPSON AUS 38.66 17.05 22.61 4.61 4.46 4.39 4.54 4.61 1.00 #9
21 Chadwick WANG SGP 37.93 18.67 20.26 4.07 3.93 4.11 4.11 4.04 1.00 #23
22 Elliot JANG TPE 36.88 15.89 20.99 4.25 4.07 4.25 4.21 4.21 0.00 #21
23 Muhammad Dwi Rizqy APOLIANTO INA 25.68 10.80 15.88 3.25 3.00 3.21 3.21 3.21 1.00 #4

Free Skate

Pl. Name Nation TSS
=
TES
+
PCS
+
SS TR PE CO IN Ded.
StN.
1 Makar IGNATOV RUS 147.22 77.22 70.00 7.11 6.75 7.04 7.14 6.96 0.00 #20
2 Alexei KRASNOZHON USA 145.22 75.72 70.50 7.07 6.93 7.07 7.11 7.07 1.00 #23
3 Joseph PHAN CAN 144.98 74.92 71.06 7.18 6.89 7.21 7.18 7.07 1.00 #22
4 Mitsuki SUMOTO JPN 134.36 67.50 66.86 6.82 6.54 6.61 6.82 6.64 0.00 #21
5 Koshiro SHIMADA JPN 131.87 66.27 65.60 6.61 6.54 6.54 6.61 6.50 0.00 #18
6 Yan HAO CHN 130.54 66.68 63.86 6.43 6.21 6.36 6.50 6.43 0.00 #13
7 Basar OKTAR TUR 127.31 67.07 61.24 6.32 5.79 6.29 6.18 6.04 1.00 #19
8 Artur DANIELIAN RUS 127.05 69.33 58.72 6.11 5.64 5.86 6.00 5.75 1.00 #15
9 Adam SIAO HIM FA FRA 122.18 63.76 59.42 6.11 5.71 6.00 5.96 5.93 1.00 #17
10 Nika EGADZE GEO 109.09 62.95 47.14 5.21 4.50 4.64 4.86 4.36 1.00 #8
11 Geon Hyeong AN KOR 105.97 50.75 55.22 5.96 5.43 5.50 5.43 5.29 0.00 #16
12 Nik FOLINI ITA 105.81 51.17 55.64 5.57 5.36 5.57 5.57 5.75 1.00 #10
13 Davide LEWTON BRAIN MON 99.51 47.37 52.14 5.50 4.96 5.29 5.11 5.21 0.00 #12
14 Goku ENDO USA 94.08 40.20 54.88 5.61 5.43 5.36 5.61 5.43 1.00 #14
15 Micah Kai LYNETTE THA 91.08 45.58 47.50 5.25 4.64 4.61 4.71 4.54 2.00 #11
16 Josh BROWN GBR 87.44 40.52 46.92 4.75 4.68 4.57 4.82 4.64 0.00 #9
17 Charles Henry KATANOVIC CRO 76.93 36.79 40.14 4.36 3.93 3.96 3.96 3.86 0.00 #7
18 Aleix GABARA ESP 74.97 34.59 42.38 4.54 4.11 4.00 4.36 4.18 2.00 #3
19 Chadwick WANG SGP 71.00 36.20 36.80 4.00 3.79 3.36 3.82 3.43 2.00 #2
20 James THOMPSON AUS 68.31 32.45 38.86 4.29 3.64 3.68 3.96 3.86 3.00 #4
21 Jakub KRSNAK SVK 63.41 26.85 38.56 4.14 3.75 3.64 4.04 3.71 2.00 #6
22 Elliot JANG TPE 61.38 26.66 37.72 4.04 3.82 3.50 3.82 3.68 3.00 #1
23 Muhammad Dwi Rizqy APOLIANTO INA 51.91 19.71 32.20 3.25 2.96 3.18 3.21 3.50 0.00 #5

Total

FPl. Name Nation Points SP FS
1 Alexei KRASNOZHON
USA
225.48 1 2
2 Joseph PHAN
CAN
221.07 2 3
3 Makar IGNATOV
RUS
219.22 4 1
4 Mitsuki SUMOTO
JPN
207.54 3 4
5 Koshiro SHIMADA
JPN
196.72 6 5
6 Basar OKTAR
TUR
194.39 5 7
7 Artur DANIELIAN
RUS
188.36 7 8
8 Yan HAO
CHN
187.48 10 6
9 Adam SIAO HIM FA
FRA
183.46 8 9
10 Geon Hyeong AN
KOR
164.33 9 11
11 Nik FOLINI
ITA
157.46 13 12
12 Davide LEWTON BRAIN
MON
154.25 11 13
13 Nika EGADZE
GEO
153.17 16 10
14 Goku ENDO
USA
147.38 12 14
15 Micah Kai LYNETTE
THA
141.64 14 15
16 Josh BROWN
GBR
133.56 15 16
17 Charles Henry KATANOVIC
CRO
119.95 18 17
18 Aleix GABARA
ESP
114.90 19 18
19 Chadwick WANG
SGP
108.93 21 19
20 James THOMPSON
AUS
106.97 20 20
21 Jakub KRSNAK
SVK
106.52 17 21
22 Elliot JANG
TPE
98.26 22 22
23 Muhammad Dwi Rizqy APOLIANTO
INA
77.59 23 23

2017 JGP Croatia Men’s Preview

Several men are competing for a spot in the Grand Prix Final at this event.  The men’s event is a little easier to make assumptions for the Final, as most of the early medal winners have a second assignment so the pairings are a little more set in stone.  However, there is still time for the federations to move their entries around to give their competitors a better chance at qualifying in a weaker field.  This is especially true for Poland where 5 medal winners (potentially 6, depending on how Shimada does here) will compete, whereas only 2 medal winners are currently on the roster for the final event in Italy.

Alexei Krasnozhon took home the gold medal from JGP Australia.  His short program has a triple flip + triple loop in the bonus and he earned positive GOEs on all of his elements, except for the triple axel.  He attempted a quad loop in his free skate, but he fell and it was under-rotated.  He also fell on a triple lutz later in the program.  Otherwise he landed six clean triples with five jumps in the bonus and earned Level 4 for all of his spins.  He has the 3rd best short program, 5th best free skate, and 2nd best total scores. He needs a gold or silver medal to guarantee a spot in the Final while a bronze medal would keep him in contention.

Mitsuki Sumoto won the gold medal at JGP Latvia.  He lost a lot of ground in his short program when his combination jump was ruled invalid and earned a negative GOE, earning him only 3.73 points for an element which would normally earn over 10.  He had a solid high scoring free skate, despite not attempting a quad.  On paper the program is not particularly impressive on the technical side.  Only five jumps are in the bonus, there are no quads, and there are two double axels.  However, he skated it mostly clean with only two minor negative GOEs.  Skating it clean will be enough to get him on the podium as others are finding their feet and trying to get consistent quads, however, to be in contention at Junior Worlds, men will likely need to be in the 215 or higher range, and he won’t reach that with this program.  He has the 2nd best free skate and 5th best total scores.  He needs a gold or silver medal to qualify for the Final, while bronze would keep in him the running.

Makar Ignatov earned the bronze medal at JGP Latvia.  His short program at that event was a bit of a mess, earning no credit for one of his spins and not completing a triple + triple as his combination jump.  He finished behind Sumoto in the free skate, despite having a quad jump.  He stood up on his quad toe and fully rotated it, but had slightly negative GOEs.  He had several strong elements but started to lose steam toward the end of the program.  He only has four jumping passes in the bonus, so he really needs to make them count, however, they were the weakest part of the whole program.  On those four jumps, he had two under-rotation calls and earned negative or neutral GOEs on all of them.  As a result, his GOEs ended up pulling his technical score below the base value for the program.  He also only earned Level 2 for one of his spins and Level 3 for the two others.  He has the quad and now he needs to focus on a more well balanced program.   He has the 7th best free skate and 6th best total scores.  A gold medal would earn him a trip to the Junior Grand Prix Final.

Joseph Phan placed 4th at JGP Australia.  He had a fairly strong shot program with a triple flip + triple toe combination but he fell on the triple axel.  His biggest issue on the technical side is that he has no jumps in the second half, giving up 10% on at least one jumping pass, if not two or three.  He did earn an impressive Level 4 on all of his spins and the step sequence.  He earned positive GOEs on all the elements except the triple axel.  Unfortunately, the free skate was not a strong moment for him, and he didn’t even finish in the top 6 for that segment.  He has the 5th best short program score.  He needs a gold medal to stay in the hunt for the Final.

Basar Oktar finished 4th at JGP Austria.  His combination jump in the short program is a triple flip + triple toe and only his solo lutz is in the bonus.  He earned positive GOEs on every element except for his opening triple axel.  The biggest area he needs to upgrade are his spins and steps, as he received Level 3 on two of his spins and only a Level 2 on the step sequence.  He had two falls in his free skate, including one on the triple axel.  He does have a backloaded free skate with 6 jumping passes in the bonus, but only three jumps in the program earned a positive GOE.  The triple axel still seems to be a work in progress for him and he’ll need it more consistent if he wants to contend for a medal at these events.  He needs a gold medal to keep himself in the conversation for the Final.

Koshiro Shimada took home a medal last season from France but finished just off the podium at his second event.  However, he did set personal best scores in all segments of competition at that event and scored over 200 points.  His scores there would put him in the top 5 for this season, giving him a great shot at the medal stand if he can replicate that effort.  If he can medal here, he has a chance to qualify for the Final next week in Poland.

 

My podium predictions:

Gold: Alexei Krasnozhon

Silver: Mitsuki Sumoto

Bronze: Makar Ignatov

 

Bios of the competitors:

James Thompson, AUS: This is his JGP debut.  He is 18 years old.

Joseph Phan, CAN: He placed 4th at JGP Australia.  His personal best is 197.72.  He is 16 years old.

Yan Hao, CHN

Elliot Jang, TPE

Charles Henry Katanovic, CRO: He placed 18th at JGP Austria.  His personal best is 124.26.  He is 17 years old.

Adam Siao Him Fa, FRA: He finished 14th at JGP France and 12th at JGP Estonia last season.  His personal best is 158.97.  He is 16 years old.

Nika Egadze, GEO: He placed 13th at JGP Austria.  His personal best is 160.52.  He is 15 years old.

Josh Brown, GBR: He placed 20th at JGP Latvia.  His personal best is 157.16.  He is 18 years old.

Muhammad Dwi Rizqy Apolianto, INA

Nik Folini, ITA: He placed 10th at JGP Austria.  His personal best is 169.49.  He is 17 years old.

Koshiro Shimada, JPN: He finished 14th at Junior Worlds.  He won bronze at JGP France and placed 4th at JGP Estonia last season.  His personal best is 203.29.  He is 16 years old.

Mitsuki Sumoto, JPN: He won gold at JGP Latvia.  His personal best is 203.51.  He is 16 years old.

Davide Lewton Brain, MON: He placed 43rd at Junior Worlds.  He finished 22nd at JGP France and 22nd at JGP Slovenia last season.  His personal best is 103.66.  He is 18 years old.

Geon Hyeong An, KOR: He finished 17th at JGP Austria.  His personal best is 150.04.  He is 16 years old.

Artur Danielian, RUS: This is his international debut.  He is 13 years old.

Makar Ignatov, RUS: He won silver at JGP Latvia.  His personal best is 196.88.  He is 17 years old.

Chadwick Wang, SGP: He finished 19th at JGP Japan last season.  His personal best is 86.93.  He is 17 years old.

Jakub Krsnak, SVK: He placed 36th at Junior Worlds.  He finished 20th at JGP Czech Republic and 18th at JGP Slovenia last season.  His personal best is 146.89.  He is 18 years old.

Aleix Gabara, ESP: He finished 38th at Junior Worlds.  He placed 17th at JGP Germany last season.  His personal best is 162.30.  He is 18 years old.

Micah Kai Lynette, THA

Basar Oktar, TUR: He finished 26th at Junior Worlds.  He placed 4th at JGP Austria.  His personal best is 181.43.  He is 15 years old.

Guko Endo, USA

Alexei Krasnozhon, USA: He finished 8th at Junior Worlds.  He won gold at JGP Australia.  His personal best is 223.60.  He is 17 years old.

2017 JGP Australia Junior Men’s Results

Short Program

Pl. Name Nation TSS
=
TES
+
PCS
+
SS TR PE CO IN Ded.
StN.
1 Alexei KRASNOZHON USA 75.04 41.39 33.65 6.79 6.32 6.86 6.75 6.93 0.00 #8
2 Joseph PHAN CAN 69.30 38.62 31.68 6.64 6.04 6.39 6.36 6.25 1.00 #1
3 Roman SAVOSIN RUS 68.68 38.93 29.75 6.21 5.75 6.00 5.93 5.86 0.00 #9
4 James MIN AUS 62.46 36.32 26.14 5.29 4.96 5.39 5.25 5.25 0.00 #7
5 Daniel GRASSL ITA 62.35 33.68 28.67 5.64 5.32 5.82 5.96 5.93 0.00 #13
6 Yuto KISHINA JPN 59.99 30.63 29.36 6.11 5.68 5.89 5.86 5.82 0.00 #3
7 Egor RUKHIN RUS 57.51 32.47 27.04 5.50 5.32 5.39 5.54 5.29 2.00 #14
8 Eric SJOBERG USA 53.69 26.99 27.70 5.71 5.39 5.39 5.71 5.50 1.00 #2
9 Donovan CARRILLO MEX 51.61 26.31 26.30 5.00 5.04 5.43 5.29 5.54 1.00 #5
10 Taichiro YAMAKUMA JPN 50.05 23.83 27.22 5.79 5.18 5.25 5.50 5.50 1.00 #12
11 Darian KAPTICH AUS 49.99 25.88 24.11 4.89 4.57 4.93 4.86 4.86 0.00 #16
12 Harrison BAIN NZL 40.48 18.84 21.64 4.39 4.11 4.50 4.32 4.32 0.00 #10
13 Giuseppe TRIULCIO AUS 38.55 18.87 19.68 4.14 3.86 3.96 4.04 3.68 0.00 #4
14 Pagiel Yie Ken SNG SGP 36.33 16.87 20.46 4.18 4.11 4.14 4.07 3.96 1.00 #11
15 Yamato ROWE PHI 34.93 14.26 21.67 4.64 4.07 4.21 4.39 4.36 1.00 #6
WD Calvin PRATAMA INA #15

Free Skate

Pl. Name Nation TSS
=
TES
+
PCS
+
SS TR PE CO IN Ded.
StN.
1 Alexei KRASNOZHON USA 134.33 69.45 66.88 6.86 6.43 6.61 6.79 6.75 2.00 #14
2 Egor RUKHIN RUS 127.61 68.61 60.00 5.89 5.86 6.07 6.07 6.11 1.00 #10
3 Roman SAVOSIN RUS 127.52 65.62 61.90 6.57 5.96 6.21 6.14 6.07 0.00 #13
4 Yuto KISHINA JPN 122.49 61.79 61.70 6.32 5.89 6.25 6.18 6.21 1.00 #9
5 Donovan CARRILLO MEX 121.80 65.16 56.64 5.61 5.39 5.86 5.75 5.71 0.00 #7
6 Eric SJOBERG USA 116.85 59.91 57.94 6.07 5.39 5.79 5.93 5.79 1.00 #8
7 Joseph PHAN CAN 114.37 51.45 64.92 6.75 6.39 6.18 6.68 6.46 2.00 #15
8 Daniel GRASSL ITA 112.58 57.58 57.00 5.57 5.39 5.79 5.89 5.86 2.00 #11
9 Taichiro YAMAKUMA JPN 99.16 47.56 54.60 5.61 5.29 5.32 5.54 5.54 3.00 #6
10 James MIN AUS 92.34 44.06 51.28 5.39 5.00 4.93 5.25 5.07 3.00 #12
11 Darian KAPTICH AUS 89.24 43.76 45.48 4.71 4.21 4.79 4.46 4.57 0.00 #3
12 Harrison BAIN NZL 70.86 29.30 42.56 4.25 4.25 4.21 4.36 4.21 1.00 #2
13 Giuseppe TRIULCIO AUS 68.41 33.61 37.80 4.18 3.54 3.75 3.86 3.57 3.00 #5
14 Pagiel Yie Ken SNG SGP 67.42 33.36 35.06 3.79 3.46 3.46 3.46 3.36 1.00 #1
15 Yamato ROWE PHI 60.98 19.90 44.08 4.57 4.43 3.93 4.54 4.57 3.00 #4

Total

FPl. Name Nation Points SP FS
1 Alexei KRASNOZHON
USA
209.37 1 1
2 Roman SAVOSIN
RUS
196.20 3 3
3 Egor RUKHIN
RUS
185.12 7 2
4 Joseph PHAN
CAN
183.67 2 7
5 Yuto KISHINA
JPN
182.48 6 4
6 Daniel GRASSL
ITA
174.93 5 8
7 Donovan CARRILLO
MEX
173.41 9 5
8 Eric SJOBERG
USA
170.54 8 6
9 James MIN
AUS
154.80 4 10
10 Taichiro YAMAKUMA
JPN
149.21 10 9
11 Darian KAPTICH
AUS
139.23 11 11
12 Harrison BAIN
NZL
111.34 12 12
13 Giuseppe TRIULCIO
AUS
106.96 13 13
14 Pagiel Yie Ken SNG
SGP
103.75 14 14
15 Yamato ROWE
PHI
95.91 15 15
WD Calvin PRATAMA
INA

2017 JGP Australia Men’s Preview

Junior Grand Prix events outside of Europe tend to have smaller fields, and this one is no exception.  Only 16 men from 11 countries are competing at this event.  The junior level has become increasingly more and more competitive, with top junior men now expected to execute not only consistent triple axels but multiple quadruple jumps.  The quad is not allowed in the short program, so scores may seem much closer after that segment.  The required solo jump for juniors this year is a lutz which also can be a great divider.  Since the lutz is one of the more difficult jumps, some competitors may not be able to do the triple and will have to settle for a double, leaving points on the table.

Alexei Krasnozhon is the highest ranked competitor returning from last season.  He finished 8th at Junior Worlds where he set a new personal best short program, but he was still over 30 points from the podium.  This will be his third year on the JGP circuit, but he had his best season last year, taking home a gold and a silver medal and qualifying for his first Final, where he placed 5th.  His personal best score was set at JGP Czech Republic last season, but he was never quite able to replicate it.  The rest of the season he scored between 208 and 211, over 10 points less than his personal best.

Roman Savosin is going into his second season on the Junior Grand Prix circuit.  He won a gold and bronze medal and qualified for the Final, where he finished 4th.  He finished just behind Krasnozhon at one event, and just ahead of him at another.  His personal best is just a shade below Krasnozhon’s, however, his was set at the senior level, where there is an extra choreographic step sequence.  In junior level competition, he never scored above a 212 last season, and even scored below the 200 point mark once.  He finished a distant 8th at Russian nationals and was not named to the Junior Worlds team.

Joseph Phan skated his first Junior Grand Prix season last year, finishing 5th and 6th.  He set a personal best of 197 at JGP Slovenia.

Daniel Grassl also is fresh off his first year on the JGP circuit with two 7th place finishes.  He showed improvement between his two events, and ended with a personal best 177.  Eric Sjoberg only competed in one JGP event last season, but he set a 177 in his first time out.

 

My podium predictions:

Gold: Alexei Krasnozhon

Silver: Roman Savosin

Bronze: Joseph Phan

 

Bios of the competitors:

Darian Kaptich, AUS: His personal best is 101.19.  He is 15 years old.

James Min, AUS: He finished 29th at Junior Worlds.  He placed 15th at JGP Japan last season.  His personal best is 145.43.  He is 16 years old.

Giuseppe Triulcio, AUS: He placed 28th at JGP Estonia last season.  His personal best is 96.45.  He is 16 years old.

Joseph Phan, CAN: He placed 6th at JGP Czech Republic and 5th at JGP Slovenia last season.  His personal best is 197.72.  He is 16 years old.

Calvin Pratama, INA: He finished 23rd at JGP France and 21st at JGP Japan last season.  His personal best is 63.94.  He is 16 years old.

Daniel Grassl, ITA: He placed 7th at JGP France and 7th at JGP Japan last season.  His personal best is 177.36.  He is 15 years old.

Yuto Kishina, JPN: He placed 9th at JGP Japan last season.  His personal best is 174.66.  He is 15 years old.

Taichiro Yamakuma, JPN: His personal best is 150.55.  He is 17 years old.

Donovan Carrillo, MEX: He placed 27th at Junior Worlds.  He finished 13th at JGP Japan and 9th at JGP Germany last season.  His personal best is 169.15.  He is 17 years old.

Harrison Bain, NZL: He placed 27th at JGP Estonia last season.  His personal best is 98.21.  He is 16 years old.

Yamato Rowe, PHI

Egor Rukhin, RUS

Roman Savosin, RUS: He won gold at JGP France and bronze at JGP Czech Republic last season to qualify for the Junior Grand Prix Final where he placed 4th.  His personal best is 222.37.  He is 17 years old.

Pagiel Yi Ken Sng, SGP:

Alexei Krasnozhon, USA: He finished 8th at Junior Worlds.  He won silver at JGP Czech Republic and gold at JGP Slovenia to qualify for the Junior Grand Prix Final where he placed 5th.  His personal best is 223.60.  He is 17 years old.

Eric Sjoberg, USA: He finished 7th at JGP Russia last season.  His personal best is 177.21.  He is 15 years old.

2017 US Nationals Junior Men’s Results

Place Start Name Short Program Free Skate Total Score
Place Score Place Score
1 11 Aleksei Krasnozhon, Dallas FSC 2 66.89 1 144.16 211.05
2 7 Camden Pulkinen, Broadmoor SC 1 73.41 2 124.24 197.65
3 10 Ryan Dunk, Baltimore FSC 4 57.78 3 114.44 172.22
4 6 Eric Sjoberg, Los Angeles FSC 3 60.73 4 109.88 170.61
5 9 Sasha Lunin, Fort Wayne ISC 5 56.60 5 104.79 161.39
6 8 Mathew Graham, Idaho Falls FSC 6 54.57 6 104.39 158.96
7 5 Peter Liu, SC of Wilmington 8 52.47 7 102.35 154.82
8 1 Derek Wagner, Northern Ice SC 7 52.85 8 100.40 153.25
9 2 Kelvin Li, Northern Ice SC 9 50.39 9 97.30 147.69
10 4 Daniil Shamis, All Year FSC 11 40.93 10 94.62 135.55
11 3 TJ Nyman, Space Coast Ice Plex FSC 10 41.51 11 89.02 130.53
WD Kendrick Weston, Salt Lake Figure Skating

2017 US Nationals Junior Men’s Preview

As a group they’ve won 14 national medals and every single competitor at this event has qualified for nationals at least once. Only Alexei Krasnozhon won medals on the Junior Grand Prix, and he won two and qualified for the Final.  The 3rd and 11th place junior men from last year will be competing.  The 1st, 2nd, 4th and 5th place novice finishers are moving up to compete at this event.  The short program will be held on Wednesday, January 18th with the free skate on Friday, January 20th.

What will set these men apart both nationally and internationally is a triple axel and a quad.  The required solo jump in the short program this year is a triple loop.  Because the juniors have a required solo jump, they are more limited in how they structure their programs, but a triple + triple combination, triple axels, and moving jumps to the bonus will definitely increase their technical score in the jumping category.

To be competitive at Junior Worlds, they’ll need to score above 70 points in the short program, 140 points in the free skate and 210 points overall.  It’s difficult to say how many spots on the Junior Worlds team may be up for grabs, as several junior eligible skaters who competed on the Junior Grand Prix this season are competing in the senior event.

Alexei Krasnozhon has the 5th best short program, 5th best free skate and 5th best total scores internationally.  He has medaled at this event each of the last two seasons, taking home a pewter medal and then a bronze medal.  He was one of the only US men to win a medal on the Junior Grand Prix, and he was the only one to qualify for the Junior Grand Prix Final.  He scored above 200 points at every single one of his JGP assignments, and international scores tend to be lower than nationals scores.  No other competitor in this field broke the 200 point mark at either international or national competitions.  He is the closest thing to a shoe-in as there can be in figure skating.  He has the triple + triples, a quad, triple axels and program components significantly higher than the rest of the field.  His advantage is great enough that he can afford to make mistakes and still come out on top.  His best scores of the season came from JGP Czech Republic so I analyzed his free skate from that event.  His jump layout included quad loop (fall, downgraded), triple salchow, triple flip, triple axel + triple toe, triple axel, triple flip + double toe + double loop, triple lutz + triple loop, and a double axel, giving him a base value of 68.08.  His base value for jumps in the free skate is nearly 14 points higher than any other competitor in this field.  He received Level 4, Level 4 and Level 3 on his spins and Level 3 on his steps.  He earned 4 points from GOE and earned between 6.96-7.29 in GOE.  At JGP Slovenia he received full credit for the quad loop but negative GOEs, and at the Final it was under-rotated.  His short program includes a triple flip + triple toe and a triple axel, giving him a base jump value of 23.71.

Eric Sjoberg comes into this event as the reigning Novice Champion.  He also has the best scores from the qualifying events by nearly 7 points.  He trains with Raf Artunian alongside current World Silver Medalist Ashley Wagner and US Champion Adam Rippon.  His free skate includes a triple loop, double axel, triple flip + triple toe (under-rotated at sectionals), triple lutz + double toe + double loop, triple lutz, triple flip, triple salchow + double toe, and double axel + double toe (singled the axel and missed the combo) giving him a base jump value of 50.86.  He received Level 4 on his spins and steps and an impressive 6.5 points from GOEs,  His program components ranged from 5.81-6.25.  His short program includes a triple flip + triple toe, double axel and triple loop for a base value of 19.47.  He isn’t attempting a triple axel and he only has one jump in the bonus, but he has the highest start value of any of the men not attempting the triple axel in the short program.  He received a one point deduction for a time violation at sectionals.

Camden Pulkinen is the only skater besides Krasnozhon attempting the triple axel.  He finished 11th at this event last year and only has the 8th best scores from qualifying.  However, I think he was vastly under-scored at sectionals on PCS, which would bring his scores up much higher.  His free skate includes a triple axel, triple lutz + triple toe, triple flip, triple lutz, triple flip + double toe + double loop, triple loop (singled at sectionals), triple salchow and double axel + double toe.  He earned Level 4, Level 4, Level 3 on his spins but only Level 2 on his steps.  He did lose 4 points from GOE and his program components ranged from 4.75-5.75.  At his JGP assignment, his PCS ranged from 5.5-6.11, and more often than not, international PCS tend to be lower than national PCS.  On PCS in the free skate alone, he scored 8 full points higher on the JGP than sectionals.  His short program includes a triple axel (under-rotated), triple lutz + triple toe and triple loop (doubled) which gives him a jump start value of 24.41: the highest for a short program at this event.  Again, his PCS were low, receiving 3 points less than he did on the Junior Grand Prix.  His score at the US Challenge Skate was higher than his JGP score and much higher than his performance at Sectionals, so I definitely expect his score to be much higher than it is currently.

Ryan Dunk has the third best total score from sectional competition and just missed the podium last season as a novice.  His free skate includes a double axel, triple lutz + triple toe (doubled at sectionals), triple lutz, triple loop, triple loop + double loop, double axel + double toe + double loop, triple toe and a triple salchow (fall) for a base value of 48.90.  He earned Level 4 on his spins and steps with program components from 5.35-5.75.  His programs are smartly constructed as he does not have a triple flip.  He uses the loop as the combination in two of his jumps to increase his technical value and goes for the maximum value on the non jumping elements.  He doesn’t attempt a triple + triple in his short program, but he backloads the jumps, putting them all in the bonus.  For his triple loop, triple lutz + double toe and double axel he earns 17.27 in base value, only a little over a point behind Hubbart with the triple + triple combination.

Mathew Graham has the 4th best total score from sectionals and is competing at nationals for the first time since 2013.  His free skate includes triple lutz + double toe, double axel + double toe, triple lutz, triple flip, triple loop + single toe (downgraded at sectionals) + double loop, triple loop, triple salchow and double axel for a base value of 45.31.  He received Level 2, Level 3, and Level 4 on his spins with Level 2 on the steps.  He earned 1.5 points from GOE and 5.50-6.06 on PCS.

Kendrick Weston set the 5th highest score at sectionals, just fractions of a point behind Graham.  He won the bronze medal as a novice last season.  His free skate includes a triple loop, triple lutz + double toe, triple lutz, triple salchow + single loop + double salchow, triple flip + double loop, triple toe, triple salchow, and double axel giving him a base value of 45.06.  He earned Level 4, Level 3, and Level 3 on his spins and Level 3 on his steps.  He earned 3.5 points from GOE but his PCS were all over the board, ranging from 4.81-6.00.  His short program content is the same as Graham’s with the same base value.

Assuming that Krasnozhon does not have a major meltdown, it is going to be the 2nd-4th places on the podium that are contested.  The major question is going to be whether Pulkinen can use the triple axel to his advantage and pull his PCS up to land on the podium.  The difference between a double and a triple axel is 5.2 points, so if another skater were able to show up to nationals with a triple axel, it could be a game changer as landing one in the short and one in the long could be worth over 10 extra points.  The other factor is going to be whether Hubbart can skate a clean program like he did at sectionals with the pressure of having to compete in two events on four consecutive days, not to mention the official practice time and warmups associated with competition.

 

My podium predictions:

Gold: Alexei Krasnozhon

Silver: Eric Sjoberg

Bronze: Camden Pulkinen

Pewter: Ryan Dunk

 

Bios of the competitors:

Ryan Dunk: He represents the Baltimore Skating Club.  He finished 5th in novice last season, is the 2015 Intermediate Men’s Pewter Medalist and finished 11th in juvenile in 2014.  He won gold at South Atlantic Regionals and silver at Eastern Sectionals to qualify for nationals.  He has the 2nd best short program, 3rd best free skate and 3rd best total scores.

Mathew Graham: He represents the Idaho Falls Figure Skating Club.  He finished 11th in intermediate in 2013.  He won gold at Northwest Pacific Regionals and silver at Pacific Coast Sectionals to qualify for nationals.  He has the 4th best short program, 4th best free skate and 4th best total scores from qualifying.

Alexei Krasnozhon: He is 16 years old and represents the Dallas Figure Skating Club.  He won silver at JGP Czech Republic and gold at JGP Slovenia to qualify for the Junior Grand Prix Final where he placed 5th.  He is the reigning Junior Bronze Medalist and 2015 Junior Pewter Medalist.

Kelvin Li: He represents the Northern Ice Skating Club.  He finished 7th in novice in 2015 and 12th in juvenile in 2012.  He won silver at Midwestern Sectionals to qualify for nationals.

Peter Liu: He is 16 years old and represents the Skating Club of Wilmington.  He placed 16th at JGP Germany.  He is the reigning Novice Silver Medalist, finished 6th as a novice in 2015, and is the 2014 Intermediate Pewter Medalist.  He won bronze at Eastern Sectionals to qualify for nationals.  He has the 7th best free skate and 9th best total scores.

Sasha Lunin: He is 16 years old and represents the Fort Wayne Ice Skating Club.  He placed 7th in novice last season and is the 2013 Juvenile Bronze Medalist.  He won pewter at Midwestern Sectionals to qualify for nationals.

TJ Nyman: He represents the Space Coast Ice Plex Figure Skating Club.  He is the 2015 Intermediate Champion and 2014 Juvenile Champion.  He won pewter at Eastern Sectionals to qualify for nationals.  He has the 6th best short program score from qualifying.

Camden Pulkinen: He is 16 years old and represents the Broadmoor Skating Club.  He placed 9th at JGP Estonia.  He finished 11th in juniors last season, 5th in juvenile in 2013 and 16th in juvenile in 2012.  He won gold at Midwestern Sectionals to qualify for Nationals.  He has the 10th best short program, 10th best free skate and 8th best total scores from qualifying.

Eric Sjoberg: He is 15 years old and represents the Los Angeles Figure Skating Club.  He placed 7th at JGP Russia.  He is the reigning Novice Champion, finished 11th as a novice in 2015, is the 2014 Novice Silver Medalist, 2013 Intermediate Men’s Pewter Medalist, 2012 Juvenile Boys Pewter Medalist and finished 11th as a juvenile in 2011.  He won gold at Pacific Coast Sectionals to qualify for nationals.  He has the best short program, best free skate and best total scores from qualifying.

Daniel Shamis: He represents the All Year Figure Skating Club.  He is the 2015 Novice Pewter Medalist.  He won gold at Southwest Pacific Regionals and pewter at Pacific Coast Sectionals to qualify for nationals.  He has the 8th best short program, 8th best free skate and 6th best total scores.

Derek Wagner: He is 17 years old and represents the Northern Ice Skating Club.  He finished 6th in novice last season, 6th in intermediate in 2013 and 9th in juvenile in 2012.  He won bronze at Midwestern Sectionals to qualify for nationals.

Kendrick Weston: He is 16 years old and represents Salt Lake Figure Skating.  He is the 2015 Novice Bronze Medalist, finished 7th in intermediate in 2014, is the 2013 Juvenile Boys Silver Medalist and finished 8th in juvenile in 2012.  He won silver at Central Pacific Regionals and bronze at Pacific Coast Sectionals to qualify for nationals.  He has the 3rd best short program, 5th best free skate and 5th best total scores.

2016 Junior Grand Prix Final Men’s Results

Short Program

Pl. Name Nation TSS
=
TES
+
PCS
+
SS TR PE CO IN Ded.
StN.
1 Dmitri ALIEV RUS 81.37 43.90 37.47 7.50 7.29 7.50 7.57 7.61 0.00 #3
2 Alexander SAMARIN RUS 81.08 43.76 37.32 7.43 7.21 7.68 7.39 7.61 0.00 #5
3 Roman SAVOSIN RUS 72.98 39.37 33.61 6.79 6.54 6.82 6.64 6.82 0.00 #1
4 Jun Hwan CHA KOR 71.85 35.60 36.25 7.36 6.96 7.18 7.36 7.39 0.00 #4
5 Alexei KRASNOZHON USA 71.48 37.13 34.35 6.96 6.79 6.82 6.96 6.82 0.00 #6
6 Ilia SKIRDA RUS 68.31 35.85 32.46 6.50 6.46 6.39 6.61 6.50 0.00 #2

Free Skate

Pl. Name Nation TSS
=
TES
+
PCS
+
SS TR PE CO IN Ded.
StN.
1 Dmitri ALIEV RUS 158.70 81.50 78.20 7.89 7.64 7.68 7.89 8.00 1.00 #6
2 Alexander SAMARIN RUS 155.44 83.44 73.00 7.57 6.79 7.43 7.39 7.32 1.00 #4
3 Jun Hwan CHA KOR 153.70 80.06 74.64 7.46 7.18 7.61 7.57 7.50 1.00 #1
4 Roman SAVOSIN RUS 139.41 70.27 69.14 7.18 6.61 6.96 6.89 6.93 0.00 #5
5 Ilia SKIRDA RUS 138.80 69.14 69.66 6.86 6.79 7.00 7.14 7.04 0.00 #3
6 Alexei KRASNOZHON USA 137.37 72.51 65.86 6.86 6.25 6.68 6.68 6.46 1.00 #2

Total

FPl. Name Nation Points SP FS
1 Dmitri ALIEV
RUS
240.07 1 1
2 Alexander SAMARIN
RUS
236.52 2 2
3 Jun Hwan CHA
KOR
225.55 4 3
4 Roman SAVOSIN
RUS
212.39 3 4
5 Alexei KRASNOZHON
USA
208.85 5 6
6 Ilia SKIRDA
RUS
207.11 6 5

2016 JGP Slovenia Men’s Results

Short Program

 Pl. Name Nation TSS
=
TES
+
PCS
+
SS TR PE CO IN Ded.
StN.
1 Dmitri ALIEV RUS 78.03 41.51 36.52 7.21 7.14 7.39 7.32 7.46 0.00 #10
2 Alexei KRASNOZHON USA 71.98 38.52 33.46 6.75 6.39 6.86 6.71 6.75 0.00 #15
3 Joseph PHAN CAN 70.33 36.44 33.89 6.71 6.61 6.93 6.82 6.82 0.00 #19
4 Ilia SKIRDA RUS 69.32 36.89 32.43 6.36 6.46 6.57 6.54 6.50 0.00 #12
5 Kazuki TOMONO JPN 68.96 36.50 32.46 6.68 6.21 6.43 6.50 6.64 0.00 #18
6 Ivan PAVLOV UKR 61.71 32.24 29.47 6.04 5.68 5.93 5.89 5.93 0.00 #21
7 Kevin AYMOZ FRA 61.49 28.10 33.39 6.64 6.57 6.61 6.75 6.82 0.00 #2
8 Sondre ODDVOLL BOE NOR 60.07 31.65 28.42 5.57 5.39 5.82 5.71 5.93 0.00 #5
9 Jiri BELOHRADSKY CZE 58.25 31.43 26.82 5.46 5.25 5.36 5.43 5.32 0.00 #3
10 Matteo RIZZO ITA 55.91 27.77 29.14 5.93 5.68 5.71 5.89 5.93 1.00 #9
11 Nurullah SAHAKA SUI 54.64 28.68 26.96 5.25 5.14 5.46 5.50 5.61 1.00 #23
12 William HUBBART USA 54.22 27.33 26.89 5.14 5.14 5.50 5.57 5.54 0.00 #6
13 Nika EGADZE GEO 52.82 28.01 24.81 5.00 4.82 5.07 4.96 4.96 0.00 #14
14 Thomas STOLL GER 49.95 24.77 25.18 5.07 4.93 4.93 5.14 5.11 0.00 #4
15 Se Jong BYUN KOR 48.87 21.70 27.17 5.64 5.46 5.25 5.50 5.32 0.00 #1
16 Harrison Jon-Yen WONG HKG 47.46 24.24 24.22 5.04 4.75 4.89 4.93 4.61 1.00 #16
17 Mate BOROCZ HUN 43.45 25.27 19.18 4.14 3.75 3.86 3.89 3.54 1.00 #17
18 Josh BROWN GBR 42.08 17.15 24.93 4.96 4.79 5.00 5.07 5.11 0.00 #11
19 Micah TANG TPE 41.99 20.48 21.51 4.61 4.11 4.29 4.36 4.14 0.00 #8
20 Jakub KRSNAK SVK 41.57 20.54 22.03 4.36 4.25 4.46 4.39 4.57 1.00 #20
21 Luc MAIERHOFER AUT 41.20 21.20 22.00 4.43 4.32 4.39 4.36 4.50 2.00 #13
22 Davide LEWTON BRAIN MON 35.94 16.19 20.75 4.39 4.04 4.07 4.25 4.00 1.00 #22
WD Roman GALAY FIN #7

Free Skate

Pl. Name Nation TSS
=
TES
+
PCS
+
SS TR PE CO IN Ded.
StN.
1 Alexei KRASNOZHON USA 139.20 73.36 65.84 6.71 6.21 6.75 6.64 6.61 0.00 #22
2 Ilia SKIRDA RUS 138.96 71.24 67.72 6.64 6.93 6.79 6.75 6.75 0.00 #17
3 Kazuki TOMONO JPN 133.61 70.05 63.56 6.43 6.14 6.46 6.39 6.36 0.00 #19
4 Kevin AYMOZ FRA 133.32 66.18 69.14 6.96 6.68 7.00 6.93 7.00 2.00 #14
5 Joseph PHAN CAN 127.39 64.97 64.42 6.64 6.29 6.39 6.43 6.46 2.00 #20
6 Ivan PAVLOV UKR 123.48 65.34 59.14 6.04 5.75 5.93 5.89 5.96 1.00 #18
7 Dmitri ALIEV RUS 122.88 60.74 64.14 6.79 6.39 6.14 6.46 6.29 2.00 #21
8 Matteo RIZZO ITA 122.17 60.61 61.56 6.14 5.89 6.25 6.21 6.29 0.00 #13
9 William HUBBART USA 117.29 62.01 55.28 5.39 5.43 5.57 5.61 5.64 0.00 #11
10 Jiri BELOHRADSKY CZE 110.51 53.95 56.56 5.79 5.46 5.71 5.68 5.64 0.00 #16
11 Sondre ODDVOLL BOE NOR 104.28 45.92 58.36 5.68 5.75 5.86 5.89 6.00 0.00 #15
12 Se Jong BYUN KOR 101.54 49.34 52.20 5.50 4.96 5.25 5.25 5.14 0.00 #8
13 Harrison Jon-Yen WONG HKG 100.13 50.41 50.72 5.07 5.11 5.04 5.18 4.96 1.00 #10
14 Nurullah SAHAKA SUI 99.91 44.11 56.80 5.61 5.54 5.68 5.75 5.82 1.00 #12
15 Nika EGADZE GEO 96.47 50.89 46.58 4.89 4.36 4.68 4.68 4.68 1.00 #7
16 Thomas STOLL GER 91.48 42.20 49.28 5.11 4.68 4.96 4.96 4.93 0.00 #6
17 Micah TANG TPE 89.15 50.67 39.48 4.39 3.57 4.07 3.96 3.75 1.00 #1
18 Jakub KRSNAK SVK 85.06 44.70 41.36 4.14 4.11 4.07 4.07 4.29 1.00 #3
19 Luc MAIERHOFER AUT 84.63 43.05 43.58 4.36 4.18 4.36 4.46 4.43 2.00 #5
20 Josh BROWN GBR 82.30 39.74 44.56 4.64 4.25 4.39 4.46 4.54 2.00 #4
21 Mate BOROCZ HUN 78.08 42.16 36.92 4.00 3.54 3.71 3.75 3.46 1.00 #9
22 Davide LEWTON BRAIN MON 67.72 31.30 38.42 4.25 3.64 3.71 3.79 3.82 2.00 #2

Total

FPl. Name Nation Points SP FS
1 Alexei KRASNOZHON
USA
211.18 2 1
2 Ilia SKIRDA
RUS
208.28 4 2
3 Kazuki TOMONO
JPN
202.57 5 3
4 Dmitri ALIEV
RUS
200.91 1 7
5 Joseph PHAN
CAN
197.72 3 5
6 Kevin AYMOZ
FRA
194.81 7 4
7 Ivan PAVLOV
UKR
185.19 6 6
8 Matteo RIZZO
ITA
178.08 10 8
9 William HUBBART
USA
171.51 12 9
10 Jiri BELOHRADSKY
CZE
168.76 9 10
11 Sondre ODDVOLL BOE
NOR
164.35 8 11
12 Nurullah SAHAKA
SUI
154.55 11 14
13 Se Jong BYUN
KOR
150.41 15 12
14 Nika EGADZE
GEO
149.29 13 15
15 Harrison Jon-Yen WONG
HKG
147.59 16 13
16 Thomas STOLL
GER
141.43 14 16
17 Micah TANG
TPE
131.14 19 17
18 Jakub KRSNAK
SVK
126.63 20 18
19 Luc MAIERHOFER
AUT
125.83 21 19
20 Josh BROWN
GBR
124.38 18 20
21 Mate BOROCZ
HUN
121.53 17 21
22 Davide LEWTON BRAIN
MON
103.66 22 22
WD Roman GALAY
FIN