2018 US Nationals Senior Dance Preview

Three teams qualified for the Grand Prix Final for the third year in a row.  This is the one discipline where the US is consistently a medal threat and is the best bet for the US at the Olympics.

As a group, they have 43 national medals.  They have won five Worlds medals, 10 Four Continents medals, and eight World Junior Medals.  They won 7 Grand Prix medals and 6 Challenger Series medals this season.  The 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 7th, 10th place finishers from last season will be competing here.  Only the 1st, 3rd, 12th place finishers from last year’s junior event moved up.  The short dance will be held on Friday, January 5th with the free dance on Saturday, January 6th.

To be competitive internationally, these teams need at least 71 points in the short dance, 107 points in the free dance, and 177 points overall.
The Shibutanis have the 3rd best total score internationally, set at Skate America.  They have consistent earned Level 4s on most of the elements in the short dance, finally achieving Level 4 on their non-touching step sequence at the Grand Prix Final, but dropping their Rhumba from a Level 2 to Level 4.  In the free dance, they have hit Level 4s on everything except for their step sequences which have been earning Level 3.  The only anomaly was their second step sequence earning a Level 2 at the Grand Prix Final.
Hubbell and Donohue have the 5th best score internationally, but they have set personal best segment scores at different competitions.  They have earned a Level 4 on every element of their short dance, but they’ve been vacillating between Level 3 and Level 4 on individual elements between events and have never earned Level 4 on everything.  In their free dance, they’ve been hitting Level 4 on their first step sequence, but have lost a level on one random element elsewhere in the program, dropping their spin to Level 3 at NHK Trophy and their last lift to Level 3 at the Grand Prix Final.
Chock and Bates have the 6th best score internationally, set at the Grand Prix Final.  They have been bringing their levels up throughout the season, achieving a Level 4 on their Rhumba at the Grand Prix Final.  They have never earned a Level 4 on the partial step sequence or the non touching step sequence.  In the free dance, they’ve been fairly consistent with achieving Level 4s on everything except for their step sequences.
While this is the deepest and most competitive discipline in the US it is also fairly predictable.  The Shibutanis, Chock and Bates, and Hubbell and Donohue have dominated the scene for the last 2.5 years and it would be a major upset if any other team were to steal one of the top three spots.  But there are several teams vying for that final spot on the podium and the placement of the top three teams is not set in stone.
Hawayek/Baker, McNamara/Carpenter and Parsons/Parsons are all former World Junior Champions and none have medaled on the Grand Prix this season.  Hawayek and Baker have been up in the senior ranks the longest and have the most experience, but they’ve also made fluke errors.  Pogrebinsky/Benoit are the reigning Pewter Medalists, landing on the podium in their first season as seniors last year.
Chock and Bates look like they might have trouble holding on to their silver medal this year.  They set a season’s best score at the Grand Prix Final where the Shibutanis and Hubbell/Donohue did not have their best events, yet they still finished behind both teams.  They have had problems hitting their Levels, including never achieving a Level 4 on some of their elements this season.  Their best technical score in the short dance is behind Hubbell and Donohue and the Shibutani’s worst score from the season, and they don’t fare much better in the other areas.
The Shibutani’s have three of the top five short dance TES scores, three of the top five short dance PCS scores, one top five free dance TES score, and three top five free dance PCS scores, putting 10 of their 12 possible scores in the top 5 for the US for the season.
Hubbell and Donohue have two of the top five short dance TES scores, one top five short dance PCS score, three top five free dance TES scores, and one top five free dance PCS scores, giving them a total of 7 top five scores.
Chock and Bates have one top five short dance PCS score, one top five free dance TES score, and one top five free dance PCS score, giving them 3 top five scores.
Even with their worst performance of the season, the Shibutanis managed to come out ahead, and their short program has been their biggest strength this season.  Hubbell and Donohue have put out stronger free dances, so it is entirely possible to see them split the two segments.  Keys to this event are going to be the Shibutanis’s lead after the short dance and if anyone can upgrade to Level 4 step sequences in either program.
Top 10 TES Scores, Short Dance
Shibutani/Shibutani: 41.30 (SA)
Shibutani/Shibutani: 40.85 (GPF)
Hubbell/Donohue: 40.57 (SC)
Hubbell/Donohue: 40.30 (NHK)
Shibutani/Shibutani: 40.23 (RC)
Hubbell/Donohue: 38.22 (GPF)
Chock/Bates: 38.08 (GPF)
Chock/Bates: 37.07 (IDF)
Chock/Bates: 35.97 (CoC)
McNamara/Carpenter: 34.30 (CoC)
Top 10 PCS Scores, Short Dance
Shibutani/Shibutani: 37.88 (SA)
Shibutani/Shibutani: 37.24 (GPF)
Shibutani/Shibutani: 37.07 (RC)
Chock/Bates: 36.69 (CoC)
Hubbell/Donohue: 36.59 (GPF)
Hubbell/Donohue: 36.51 (SC)
Chock/Bates: 36.48 (IDF)
Chock/Bates: 36.28 (GPF)
Hubbell/Donohue: 36.01 (NHK)
Hawayek/Baker: 31.51 (SA)
Top 10 TES Scores, Free Dance
Shibutani/Shibutani: 57.95 (SA)
Hubbell/Donohue: 57.64 (NHK)
Hubbell/Donohue: 57.47 (SC)
Hubbell/Donohue: 57.42 (GPF)
Chock/Bates: 57.25 (GPF)
Chock/Bates: 56.27 (CoC)
Shibutani/Shibutani: 56.01 (RC)
Shibutani/Shibutani: 54.15 (GPF)
Chock/Bates: 53.47 (IDF)
Hawayek/Baker: 53.05 (SC)
Top 10 PCS Scores, Free Dance
Shibutani/Shibutani: 57.12 (SA)
Shibutani/Shibutani: 55.93 (RC)
Hubbell/Donohue: 55.88 (SC)
Shibutani/Shibutani: 55.76 (GPF)
Chock/Bates: 55.57 (CoC)
Chock/Bates: 55.54 (GPF)
Hubbell/Donohue: 55.17 (GPF)
Chock/Bates: 54.83 (IDF)
Hubbell/Donohue: 54.40 (NHK)
Hawayek/Baker: 49.05 (SC)

My podium predictions:

Gold: Shibutani/Shibutani

Silver: Hubbell/Donohue

Bronze: Chock/Bates

Pewter: Hawayek/Baker

 

Bios of the competitors:

Aldridge/Eaton: She is 23 and represents the Detroit Skating Club he is 25 and represents the Ann Arbor Figure Skating Club.  They are the 2014 Four Continents Bronze Medalists and 2012 and 2013 World Junior Bronze Medalists.  They finished 6th in 2015, 5th in 2014, are the 2013 Junior Champions, 2012 Junior Champions, finished 5th in juniors in 2011 and are the 2010 Novice Champions.  They won gold at Midwestern Sectionals to qualify for nationals.

Bain/Altukhov

Biechler/Dodge: She is 19 and represents the Skating Club of Wilmington and he is 23 and represents the Peninsula Skating Club.  They finished 8th at the US International Figure Skating Classic and 17th at Finlandia Trophy.  They placed 7th last season, 5th as juniors in 2016, 8th at juniors in 2015, 7th as juniors in 2014 and 9th as juniors in 2013.

Chock/Bates: She is 25 and represents the All Year Figure Skating Club and he is 28 and represents the Ann Arbor Figure Skating Club.  They finished 7th at Worlds and are the reigning Four Continents Bronze Medalists.  They won silver at Cup of China and silver at Internationaux de France to qualify for the Grand Prix Final where they placed 5th.  They are the 2015 World Silver Medalists, 2016 World Bronze Medalists, 2015 and 2016 Four Continents Silver Medalists, and 2013 Four Continents Bronze Medalists.  They are the reigning Silver Medalists, 2016 Silver Medalists, 2015 Champions, 2014 Silver Medalists, 2013 Silver Medalists and finished 5th in 2012.  They have the 8th best short program, 5th best free skate, and 6th best total scores internationally.

Hawayek/Baker: She is 21 and represents the Detroit Skating Club and he is 24 and represents the Seattle Skating Club.  They finished 4th at Skate Canada and 5th at Skate America.  They won silver at the US Figure Skating Classic and bronze at Golden Spin of Zagreb.  They are the 2014 World Junior Champions.  They finished 5th last season, 5th in 2016, are the 2015 Pewter Medalists, 2014 Junior Champions and 2013 Junior Silver Medalists.

Hubbell/Donohue: She is 26 and he is 27 and they represent the Lansing Skating Club.  They placed 9th at Worlds and 4th at Four Continents last season.  They won bronze at Skate Canada and silver at NHK Trophy to qualify for the Grand Prix Final where they placed 4th.  They won gold at the US International Classic.  They are the 2014 Four Continents Champions.  They are the reigning Bronze Medalists, 2016 Bronze Medalists, 2015 Bronze Medalists, 2014 Pewter Medalists, 2013 Pewter Medalists and 2012 Bronze Medalists.  They have the 6th best short program, 4th best free skate, and 5th best total scores internationally.

Klopstock/Schedl: She represents the Centennial 7k Skating Club and he represents the University of Delaware Figure Skating Club.  They finished 12th as juniors last season.  They won bronze at Eastern Sectionals to qualify for nationals.

Manta/Johnson: She is 21 and represents the Coyotes Skating Club of Arizona and he is 23 and represents the Broadmoor Skating Club.  They placed 14th at Nebelhorn Trophy.  They finished 8th last season, 7th in 2016, and 10th as juniors in 2015.

McNamara/Carpenter: She is 18 and represents the Peninsula Skating Club and he is 21 and represents the Washington Figure Skating Club.  They placed 7th at Junior Worlds last season.  They placed 5th at Cup of China.  They finished 5th at the Autumn Classic International, 8th at Finlandia Trophy, and won silver at Warsaw Cup.  They are the 2016 World Junior Champions and 2015 World Junior Silver Medalists.  They are the reigning Junior Bronze Medalists, 2015 and 2016 Junior Champions, 2014 Junior Silver Medalists, 2013 Junior Bronze Medalists, 2012 Junior Bronze Medalists, finished 9th in Junior in 2011, 6th in Novice in 2010, are the 2009 Intermediate Pewter Medalists and 2008 Juvenile Pewter Medalists.

Parsons/Parsons: She is 20 and he is 22 and they represent the Washington Figure Skating Club.  They are the reigning World Junior Champions.  They placed 7th at Rostelecom Cup and 9th at Skate America.  They won silver at Ondrej Nepela Trophy and finished 8th at Golden Spin of Zagreb.  They are the 2016 World Junior Silver Medalists.  They are the reigning Junior Champions, 2016 Junior Silver Medalists, 2015 Junior Silver Medalists, 2014 Junior Bronze Medalists, 2012 Junior Pewter Medalists and 2011 Novice Champions.

Pogrebinsky/Benoit: She is 19 represents the Peninsula Skating Club and he is 22 and represents the Skokie Valley Skating Club.  They placed 7th at Cup of China and 7th at Internationaux de France.  They won bronze at Tallinn Trophy.  They are the reigning Pewter Medalists, 2016 Junior Bronze Medalists and 2015 Junior Bronze Medalists.

Reynolds/Reynolds: She is 27 and he is 24 and they represent the IceWorks Skating Club.  They finished 10th last season, 13th in 2016, 11th in 2015, and 14th in 2014.

Shibutani/Shibutani: She is 23 and he is 26 and they represent the Skating Club of New York.  They are the reigning World Bronze Medalists and reigning Four Continents Silver Medalists.  They won gold at Rostelecom Cup and gold at Skate America to qualify for the Grand Prix Final where they won bronze.  They are the 2016 World Silver Medalists, 2011 World Bronze Medalists, 2016 Four Continents Champions, 2011 Four Continents Silver Medalists, 2015 Four Continents Bronze Medalists, and 2009 World Junior Silver Medalists.  They are the reigning Champions, 2016 Champions, 2015 Silver Medalists, 2014 Bronze Medalists, 2013 Bronze Medalists, 2012 Silver Medalists, 2011 Silver Medalists, 2010 Junior Champions, 2009 Junior Silver Medalists, 2008 Junior Pewter Medalists, 2007 Novice Champions, 2006 Intermediate Champions and 2005 Juvenile Silver Medalists.  They have the 3rd best short dance, 3rd best free dance, and 3rd best total scores internationally.

Short Dance

  1. Virtue/Moir, CAN: 82.68 (Skate Canada)
  2. Papadakis/Cizeron, FRA: 82.07 (Grand Prix Final)
  3. Shibutani/Shibutani, USA: 79.18 (Skate America)

Free Dance

  1. Papadakis/Cizeron, FRA: 120.58 (Internationaux de France)
  2. Virtue/Moir, CAN: 118.33 (Grand Prix Final)
  3. Shibutani/Shibutani, USA: 115.07 (Skate America)

Total (one score per team listed)

  1. Papadakis/Cizeron, FRA: 202.16 (Grand Prix Final)
  2. Virtue/Moir, CAN: 199.86 (Skate Canada/Grand Prix Final)
  3. Shibutani/Shibutani, USA: 194.25 (Skate America)

 

2017 Cup of China Dance Preview

This promises to be a fascinating event.  First, the field is extremely stacked with three top teams competing here all who are current or former World medalists, and all who want a spot on the Olympic podium this season.  There are also several new and up and coming teams, looking to start making a name for themselves in preparation for the next Olympic cycle.  Additionally, there are 10 teams competing here, but only four countries are represented, China, France, Russia, and the US, so there are also mini national competitions going on between these teams.

Three teams are making their Grand Prix debuts, including former Junior World Champions McNamara and Carpenter.  Angelique Abachkina is the youngest lady at this event at age 17, while Ekaterina Bobrova is the oldest at 27.  Quinn Carpenter is 21 while Evan Bates and Dmitri Soloviev are 28.  Chock and Bates and Bobrova and Soloviev have scored over 180 points in their careers, while Papadakis and Cizeron have a personal best above 190.

Papadakis and Cizeron are going into only their fourth season on the Grand Prix, after missing the 2015 season due to injury.  They have won four medals, including three gold, and have qualified for the Final twice, winning medals both times.  They started their season with a gold medal at Finlandia Trophy.  Their short dance had a Level 4 rhumba, twizzles, and lift, with Level 3 on their non touching step sequence and partial step sequence.  They had all positive GOEs, worth 9 points, and program components in the mid to high 9s.  They even received five 10.00 marks.  Their free dance had Level 4 twizzles, lifts, and spin, with Level 3 on their circular step sequence.  They had a fall during their diagonal step sequence, which dropped it to a Level 2 and made the element worth only 2.60 points after all the deductions.  In contrast, their other step sequence was still only a Level 3 but was worth 9.85 points, so the fall cost them dearly.  The rest of their program was fairly strong, and they still managed to earn 13 points from GOEs and receive program components in the mid 9s.  They have the 2nd best short dance, 6th best free dance, and 5th best total scores.

Bobrova and Soloviev won a silver medal at Rostelecom Cup.  They need a gold medal to guarantee their spot in the Final, while a silver will keep them in contention.  Their short dance in Russia featured Level 4 twizzles, non touching step sequence, rhumba, and lift with Level 3 on their partial step sequence.  They earned all positive GOEs and had program components in the low to mid 9s.  While they have some of the best raw technical scores this season, they can still improve their GOEs and especially their program components.  However, their GOE and program component marks were higher than they received at Pndrej Nepela Trophy earlier this season, and they improved their levels as well.  Their free dance earned Level 4 for the twizzles, lifts, and the straight line step sequence with Level 3 on their diagonal step sequence.  Their GOEs were all positive, except for their spin, which had a bit of a hiccup and only received Level 2, earning 11 points.  Their program components were similar to earlier in the season in the low to mid 9s.  They have the 5th best short dance, 6th best free dance, and 6th best total scores.

Chock and Bates are coming off a disappointing season where they finished 2nd at US Nationals for the second year in a row, and then finished 7th at Worlds, tying their worst performance ever.  They have not competed yet this season, so they are a bit of a wild card in this event.  There is no denying they are a top team and should land on the podium, but it’s a little harder to predict if they will have the programs at their best capacity in regards to levels and performance quality.  This will be their 7th season on the Grand Prix, and they have medaled 8 times.  The last time they won gold was back at Skate America in 2015.  They have qualified for the Final each of the past three seasons, and they won silver twice, but finished 6th last year.

While they are not necessarily medal contenders at this event, this will be the first match up between McNamara and Carpenter and Pogrebinsky and Benoit.  Pogrebinsky and Benoit made their senior debut last season, despite finishing just 3rd at US Nationals as juniors the year prior and not medaling at Junior Worlds.  That year, McNamara and Carpenter won the gold medal at Junior Worlds but decided to stay junior for one more season.  They failed to make the podium last year, and are making their senior Grand Prix debut at this event.  Pogrebinsky and Benoit have never come out on top of McNamara and Carpenter, but they also have a year of senior experience under their belt.

McNamara and Carpenter are making their Grand Prix debut at this event.  They are the 2016 World Junior Champions.  They kicked off their senior careers with a 5th place finish at the Autumn Classic International and an 8th place finish at Finlandia Trophy.  At the Autumn Classic International, they earned Level 4 for the twizzles and lift in their short dance with Level 3 on their non touching step sequence.  They scored all positive GOEs and had program components in the low to mid 7s.  Their free dance earned Level 4 for their lifts and twizzles, with Level 3 on their serpentine step sequence.  They again earned all positive GOEs and had program components slightly higher in the mid to high 7s.  At Finlandia, their short dance again earned Level 4 for the twizzles and lift but only a Level 2 on their step sequence and their program components were similar in the low to mid 7s.    They had a major error on their free dance at Finlandia, with a fall during their spin.  It only earned a Level 1 and taking into account the deduction, was only worth .70 points.

Pogrebinsky and Benoit are entering into their sophomore season on the Grand Prix.  They finished 4th at Lombardia Trophy to start their season.  At Lombardia Trophy, they earned Level 4 on their curve lift and twizzles in the short dance, with Level 3 on the non touching step sequence, but they only earned Level 1 on the rhumba.  They received all positive GOEs and had program components in the mid 7s.  Their free dance featured a Level 4 spin and lifts, with Level 3 on their twizzles.  They earned all positive GOEs and had program components in the low to mid 7s.

 

My podium predictions:

Gold: Papadakis/Cizeron

Silver: Chock/Bates

Bronze: Bobrova/Soloviev

 

Bios of the competitors:

Chen/Zhao, CHN: They placed 1oth at Four Continents.  They finished 9th at Cup of China last season.  Their personal best is 128.55.  She is 23 and he is 25.

Wang/Liu, CHN: They finished 16th at Worlds and 7th at Four Continents.  They placed 9th at Skate Canada and 6th at Cup of China last season.  Their personal best is 158.36.  She is 23 and he is 23.

Wang/Zhao, CHN: This is their Grand Prix debut.  She is 19 and he is 22.

Abachkina/Thauron, FRA: They finished 8th at Junior Worlds last season.  They won gold at JGP France and bronze at JGP Japan last season to qualify for the Junior Grand Prix Final where they placed 5th.  This is their Grand Prix debut.  Their personal best is 152.17.  She is 17 and he is 22.

Papadakis/Cizeron, FRA: They are the reigning World Silver Medalists and European Champions.  They won gold at Trophee de France and silver at NHK Trophy last season to qualify for the Grand Prix Final where they won silver.  They are the 2015 and 2016 European Champions, 2015 and 2016 World Champions, and 2013 World Junior Silver Medalists.  Their personal best is 196.04.  She is 22 and he is 22.

Bobrova/Soloviev, RUS: They finished 5th at Worlds and are the reigning European Bronze Medalists.  They won silver at Rostelecom Cup.  They are the 2013 World Bronze Medalists, 2013 European Champions, 2011 and 2012 European Silver Medalists, 2016 European Bronze Medalists, and 2007 World Junior Champions.  Their personal best is 186.68.  She is 27 and he is 28.

Zagorski/Guerreiro, RUS: They placed 5th at Rostelecom Cup last season.  Their personal best is 173.02.  She is 23 and he is 26.

Chock/Bates, USA: They finished 7th at Worlds and are the reigning Four Continents Bronze Medalists.  They won silver at Skate Canada and silver at Rostelecom Cup last season to qualify for the Grand Prix Final where they placed 6th.  They are the 2015 World Silver Medalists, 2016 World Bronze Medalists, 2015 and 2016 Four Continents Silver Medalists, and 2013 Four Continents Bronze Medalists.  Their personal best is 189.01.  She is 25 and he is 28.

McNamara/Carpenter, USA: They placed 7th at Junior Worlds.  They won gold at JGP Czech Republic and gold at JGP Slovenia last season to qualify for the Junior Grand Prix Final where they won bronze.  This is their Grand Prix debut.  They are the 2016 World Junior Champions and 2015 World Junior Silver Medalists.  Their personal best is 163.65.  She is 18 and he 21.

Pogrebinsky/Benoit, USA: They finished 7th at Skate America and 6th at Rostelecom Cup last season.  Their personal best is 167.81.  She is 19 and he is 22.

2017 US Nationals Junior Dance Results

Place Start Name Short Dance Free Dance Total Score
Place Score Place Score
1 11 Rachel Parsons, Washington FSC
Michael Parsons, Washington FSC
1 72.42 1 103.91 176.33
2 9 Christina Carreira, SC of New York
Anthony Ponomarenko, SC of San Francisco
3 66.77 2 98.29 165.06
3 12 Lorraine McNamara, Peninsula SC
Quinn Carpenter, Washington FSC
2 70.44 3 93.19 163.63
4 10 Chloe Lewis, All Year FSC
Logan Bye, SC of New York
4 60.60 4 87.83 148.43
5 8 Caroline Green, Washington FSC
Gordon Green, Washington FSC
6 50.54 5 79.28 129.82
6 5 Eliana Gropman, Pavilion SC of Cleveland Heights
Ian Somerville, Washington FSC
5 52.95 6 74.95 127.90
7 6 Alina Efimova, Peninsula SC
Alexander Petrov, Hershey FSC
7 50.27 7 68.63 118.90
8 7 Diana Avaz, Detroit SC
Val Katsman, Broadmoor SC
8 50.18 8 67.38 117.56
9 2 Emma Gunter, Washington FSC
Caleb Wein, Washington FSC
9 49.37 9 66.53 115.90
10 4 Elizabeth Addas, All Year FSC
Michael Valdez, All Year FSC
11 45.62 10 62.40 108.02
11 1 Lydia Erdman, Arctic FSC
Alexey Shchepetov, Philadelphia SC & HS
10 46.51 11 59.80 106.31
12 3 Cassidy Klopstock, Centennial 7k SC
Jacob Schedl, University of Delaware FSC
12 38.97 12 57.23 96.20
WD Heidi Washburn, Detroit SC
Ilya Yukhimuk, Detroit SC

2017 US Nationals Junior Dance Preview

This is the most competitive group competing in the junior division at nationals.  For the second year in a row, three US teams qualified for the Junior Grand Prix Final, and two of those teams won medals at the Final.

As a group they have won 25 nationals medals (with 7 going to McNamara and Carpenter and 5 going to Parsons and Parsons) and three World Junior medals.  Four teams combined to win nine JGP medals this season.  The 1st, 2nd, 4th, 6th, and 7th place teams from last season will be returning.  The novice 1st and 2nd place teams are moving up to compete here.  The short dance will be held on Wednesday, January 18th with the free dance on Friday, January 20th.

The depth in this event in the US is both a blessing and a curse.  Two of the three teams who went to Sochi are still competing as seniors and three US teams qualified for the Grand Prix Final this season.  Because it is hard to breakthrough as a senior, teams are staying at their level longer before moving up.  This goes all the way down the pipeline and more and more teams are staying put for several seasons.

Despite this, the US actually had to give up some spots on the Junior Grand Prix as they did not have enough age eligible teams to fill all the spots they were given.  One team from last season aged out and one moved up and several of the up and coming teams are not yet old enough to compete.

To be competitive internationally, these teams need to score above 57 points in the short dance, 86 points in the free dance, and 141 points overall.

McNamara and Carpenter are competing in the junior event for the 7th time, after winning gold each of the last two years and medaling each of the last 6 seasons.  They have come a long way from the tiny little things who first skated to These Boots Were Made for Walking.  They are the reigning World Junior Champions, but have found themselves struggling this season.  They dropped to 3rd overall at the Junior Grand Prix Final and have been surpassed by their training mates, the Parsons.  At the JGPF, they earned Level 4 on their twizzles, lifts and spin with Level 2 on their step sequences in the free dance.  Long known for their technical prowess, earning Level 2s is a big issue for them.  They did earn 9 points from GOE and had program components ranging from 7.86-7.96.  Their short dance had Level 4 twizzles and lift with Level 3 on the mid-line steps and Level 4 and Level 2 on the Blues.  They earned 5.5 points from GOE and had program components ranging from 7.61-7.92.  They have the 3rd best short dance, 4th best free dance and 3rd best total scores internationally.

The Parsons are having the best season of their career, taking home the gold medal from the Junior Grand Prix Final last month.  They’ve long sat in the shadow of McNamara and Carpenter and that was the first time they’ve beat them in head to head competition.  Their free dance at the Final featured Level 4 twizzles, lifts and spin with Level 3 step sequences.  They earned a whopping 10 points from GOE with program components ranging from 8.04-8.29.  Their short dance received Level 4 on the twizzles and lift with Level 3 on the midline steps and Level 4 on both segments of the Blues.  They earned 7 points from GOE and program components ranging from 7.79-8.07.  They have the 2nd best short dance, 2nd best free dance and best total scores internationally.

Carreira and Ponomarenko qualified for the Junior Grand Prix Final for the first time in their career this season and finished just behind McNamara and Carpenter.  They are the reigning Pewter Medalists at this event.  Their free dance at that event earned Level 4 for the spin, twizzles and lifts and Level 3 for the step sequences.  They earned 7.5 points in GOE and program components from 7.29-7.64.  Their short dance received a Level 4 on the lift and twizzles, Level 3 on the midline steps and Level 3 and Level 4 on the Blues.  They earned 4.5 points from GOE with program components ranging from 7.14-7.43.  They have the 4th best short dance, 3rd best free dance and 4th best total scores internationally.

Lewis and Bye won the bronze medal at JGP Estonia this season, the first of their career.  They finished 6th at nationals last year and will be looking to make the junior podium for the first time.  They had a very rough outing at Sectionals.  Their free dance there received Level 4 on their twizzles, lifts and spin, with Level 3 on one step sequence and Level 1 and a fall on the other step sequence.  They earned just 3 points from GOE with program components ranging from 5.17-5.92.  The fall on the step sequence is alone is a near fatal mistake.  The difference between Level 1 and Level 4 on the steps is 3 points, plus the one point deduction for the fall, negative GOEs and any downgrades in the program components.  Their short dance included a Level 4 lift, Level 1 twizzles (with a fall), Level 1 midline steps (fall), and Level 4 Blues sequences.  They earned about 1 point from GOE with program components ranging from 4.92-5.75.  It is rare to see one fall from an ice dance team, but three in one event is unheard of.  It is extremely unlikely that anything like this would happen to them again, and they should return to the caliber shown internationally this season.

Also looking for spots in the podium are three young up and coming teams.  They all start with Gs and they all train at the Wheaton Ice Skating Academy with the Parsons and McNamara and Carpenter.

Gropman and Somerville finished 7th last year in their first year competing as juniors.  Their free dance at sectionals received Level 4 on the lifts and spin, and Level 3 on the steps and twizzles.  They earned 6 points from GOE and had program components ranging from 5.58-6.08.  Their short dance had a Level 4 lift, Level 3 midline steps, Level 2 twizzles and Level 4 on the Blues.  They earned 3.5 points from GOE and had program components ranging from 5.75-6.08.

Gunter and Wein are the reigning Novice Silver Medalists.  They are making their junior debut nationally after competing on the Junior Grand Prix for the first time this season.  Their free dance earned Level 4 on the twizzles, lifts and spin, Level 3 on one step sequence, and Level 2 on the other step sequence.  They earned 6 points from GOE with program components ranging from 5.75-6.25.  Their short dance received Level 4 on the twizzles and lift, Level 3 on the midline steps and Level 4 on the Blues.  They earned 2.5 points from GOE and had program components ranging from 5.33-6.08.

Green and Green are making their long awaited junior debut.  They have won four national titles in a row, including back to back novice titles the last two seasons.  They are still too young to compete internationally as juniors, but have been given several international novice assignments over the past two years.  Most recently they were assigned to the NRW Trophy where they won gold in the novice division.  They set the best score in qualifying competition by 13 points.  Their free dance at sectionals earned Level 4 on the lifts and spin with Level 3 on the steps and twizzles.  They earned 8 points from GOE with program components ranging from 6.50-7.17.  Their short dance received Level 4 on the lift with Level 3 on the twizzles and midline step sequence with Level 4 and Level 3 on the Blues.  They earned 5.5 points from GOE with program components ranging from 6.33-7.08.

In Ice Dance, quality is the name of the game.  The Level you receive on your step sequence can make or break you and those with the highest GOEs and PCS scores will win.  The difference between levels on the step sequences is a full point and a half.  At the JGPF, McNamara and Carpenter received Level 2 on both of their step sequences, costing them 3 points compared to the Parsons.  For the Blues in the short dance, the difference between levels is only .6, so the hit isn’t as bad.  Looking at all the WISA teams, they all earned Level 4 on both segments of the Blues, except for Green and Green who earned one Level 3 and McNamara and Carpenter who earned one Level 2.  For the free dance, they all earned Level 3 on their steps, except for McNamara and Carpenter who earned 2s.  I would be shocked if they didn’t have their levels fixed before nationals given that they share the same coaching team, are the most senior team at their rink and they’ve routinely received these levels before.  However, their GOEs were between 1 and 1.5 points lower than the Parsons at the JGPF and they lost by 1.5 points on PCS in the free dance alone.  They might be able to close the technical gap, but this is looking like its going to be the Parsons event to lose.

My podium predictions:

Gold: Parsons/Parsons

Silver: McNamara/Carpenter

Bronze: Carreira/Ponomarenko

Pewter: Green/Green

 

Bios of the competitors:

Addas/Valdez: She is 17 and they represent the All Year Figure Skating Club.  They won silver at Pacific Coast Sectionals to qualify for nationals.

Avaz/Katsman: She represents the Detroit Skating Club and he represents the Broadmoor Skating Club.  They won gold at Midwestern Sectionals to qualify for nationals.

Carreira/Ponomarenko: She is 16 and represents the Skating Club of New York and he is 16 and represents the Skating Club of San Francisco.  They won silver at JGP France and silver at JGP Russia to qualify for the Junior Grand Prix Final where they placed 4th.  They are the reigning Junior Pewter Medalists and placed 5th in juniors in 2015.

Efimova/Petrov: She represents the Peninsula Figure Skating Club and he represents the Hershey Figure Skating Club.  They won silver at Pacific Coast Sectionals to qualify for nationals.

Erdman/Shchepetov: He is 19 and they represent the Philadelphia Skating Club and Humane Society.  They won silver at Eastern Sectionals to qualify for nationals.

Green/Green: She is 13 and he is 15 and they represent the Washington Figure Skating Club.  They are the reigning Novice Champions, 2015 Novice Champions, 2014 Intermediate Champions, 2013 Juvenile Champions and finished 7th as juveniles in 2012.  They won gold at Eastern Sectionals to qualify for nationals.

Gropman/Somerville: She is 15 and represents the Pavilion Skating Club of Cleveland Heights and he is 16 and represents the Washington Figure Skating Club.  They placed 9th at JGP France.  They placed 7th in juniors last season, are the 2014 Novice Silver Medalists, 2013 Intermediate Champions and 2012 Juvenile Champions.  They won bronze at Eastern Sectionals to qualify for nationals.

Gunter/Wein: She is 14 and he is 15 and they represent the Washington Figure Skating Club.  They placed 7th at JGP Japan.  They are the reigning Novice Silver Medalists, 2015 Novice Bronze Medalists and 2014 Intermediate Bronze Medalists.  They won silver at Eastern Sectionals to qualify for nationals.

Klopstock/Schedl: She represents the Centennial 7k Skating Club and he represents the University of Delaware Figure Skating Club.  They won bronze at Midwestern Sectionals to qualify for nationals.

Lewis/Bye: She is 16 and represents the All Year Figure Skating Club and he is 18 and represents the Skating Club of New York.  They placed 6th at JGP Czech Republic and won bronze at JGP Estonia.  They finished 6th in juniors last season, 7th in juniors in 2015, 6th as juniors in 2014, are the 2013 Novice Champions, 2012 Novice Pewter Medalists and finished 6th in Intermediate in 2011.  They won pewter at Eastern Sectionals to qualify for nationals.

McNamara/Carpenter: She is 17 and represents the Peninsula Skating Club and he is 20 and represents the Washington Figure Skating Club.  They are the reigning World Junior Champions.  They won gold at JGP Czech Republic and gold at JGP Slovenia to qualify for the Junior Grand Prix Final where they won bronze.  They are the 2015 World Junior Silver Medalists.  They are the reigning Junior Champions, 2015 Junior Champions, 2014 Junior Silver Medalists, 2013 Junior Bronze Medalists, 2012 Junior Bronze Medalists, finished 9th in Junior in 2011, 6th in Novice in 2010, are the 2009 Intermediate Pewter Medalists and 2008 Juvenile Pewter Medalists.

Parsons/Parsons: She is 19 and he is 21 and they represent the Washington Figure Skating Club.  They are the reigning World Junior Silver Medalists.  They won gold at JGP Japan and gold at JGP Germany to qualify for the Junior Grand Prix Final where they won gold.  They are the reigning Junior Silver Medalists, 2015 Junior Silver Medalists, 2014 Junior Bronze Medalists, 2012 Junior Pewter Medalists and 2011 Novice Champions.

Washburn/Yukhimuk: They represent the Detroit Skating Club.  They won pewter at Midwestern Sectionals to qualify for nationals.

2016 Junior Grand Prix Final Dance Results

Short Dance

 Pl. Name Nation TSS
=
TES
+
PCS
+
SS TR PE CO IN Ded.
StN.
1 Alla LOBODA / Pavel DROZD RUS 67.58 34.86 32.72 8.04 8.11 8.36 8.14 8.25 0.00 #6
2 Rachel PARSONS / Michael PARSONS USA 66.91 35.11 31.80 7.96 7.79 7.96 7.96 8.07 0.00 #4
3 Lorraine MCNAMARA / Quinn CARPENTER USA 63.73 32.67 31.06 7.61 7.75 7.68 7.96 7.82 0.00 #2
4 Christina CARREIRA / Anthony PONOMARENKO USA 61.39 32.09 29.30 7.21 7.14 7.43 7.43 7.43 0.00 #3
5 Angelique ABACHKINA / Louis THAURON FRA 60.08 31.34 28.74 7.04 6.89 7.43 7.29 7.29 0.00 #5
6 Anastasia SHPILEVAYA / Grigory SMIRNOV RUS 59.29 30.75 28.54 7.07 7.00 7.14 7.29 7.18 0.00 #1

Free Dance

Pl. Name Nation TSS
=
TES
+
PCS
+
SS TR PE CO IN Ded.
StN.
1 Rachel PARSONS / Michael PARSONS USA 95.59 46.39 49.20 8.21 8.04 8.21 8.29 8.25 0.00 #6
2 Alla LOBODA / Pavel DROZD RUS 94.29 44.53 49.76 8.29 8.07 8.46 8.29 8.36 0.00 #5
3 Lorraine MCNAMARA / Quinn CARPENTER USA 89.74 42.22 47.52 7.89 7.86 7.96 7.96 7.93 0.00 #4
4 Christina CARREIRA / Anthony PONOMARENKO USA 88.59 43.51 45.08 7.46 7.29 7.64 7.57 7.61 0.00 #3
5 Angelique ABACHKINA / Louis THAURON FRA 86.04 41.92 44.12 7.29 7.07 7.54 7.43 7.43 0.00 #2
6 Anastasia SHPILEVAYA / Grigory SMIRNOV RUS 81.35 39.24 43.11 7.07 6.96 7.36 7.25 7.29 1.00 #1

Total

FPl. Name Nation Points SD FD
1 Rachel PARSONS / Michael PARSONS
USA
162.50 2 1
2 Alla LOBODA / Pavel DROZD
RUS
161.87 1 2
3 Lorraine MCNAMARA / Quinn CARPENTER
USA
153.47 3 3
4 Christina CARREIRA / Anthony PONOMARENKO
USA
149.98 4 4
5 Angelique ABACHKINA / Louis THAURON
FRA
146.12 5 5
6 Anastasia SHPILEVAYA / Grigory SMIRNOV
RUS
140.64 6 6

2016 JGP Slovenia Dance Results

Short Dance

 Pl. Name Nation TSS
=
TES
+
PCS
+
SS TR PE CO IN Ded.
StN.
1 Lorraine MCNAMARA / Quinn CARPENTER USA 62.60 30.44 32.16 8.05 7.85 8.05 8.15 8.10 0.00 #2
2 Anastasia SKOPTCOVA / Kirill ALESHIN RUS 56.80 28.60 28.20 7.00 6.85 7.05 7.20 7.15 0.00 #11
3 Sofia POLISHCHUK / Alexander VAKHNOV RUS 55.60 26.68 28.92 7.25 7.05 7.20 7.35 7.30 0.00 #13
4 Natacha LAGOUGE / Corentin RAHIER FRA 51.06 26.02 25.04 6.40 6.00 6.35 6.25 6.30 0.00 #4
5 Ashlynne STAIRS / Lee ROYER CAN 50.52 27.92 22.60 5.70 5.50 5.75 5.70 5.60 0.00 #1
6 Sarah Marine ROUFFANCHE / Geoffrey BRISSAUD FRA 47.70 23.38 24.32 6.10 5.70 6.25 6.20 6.15 0.00 #7
7 Maria GOLUBTSOVA / Kirill BELOBROV UKR 46.42 24.42 23.00 5.60 5.65 5.70 6.00 5.80 1.00 #6
8 Leticia MARSH / Anton SPIRIDONOV GBR 42.40 21.16 21.24 5.40 5.15 5.35 5.30 5.35 0.00 #5
9 Sarah Michelle KNISPEL / Maximilian VOIGTLAENDER GER 39.56 21.00 18.56 4.80 4.50 4.85 4.60 4.45 0.00 #9
10 Elvira NIKOLOVA / Ricards EVELINS BUL 37.06 20.42 17.64 4.45 4.30 4.50 4.45 4.35 1.00 #10
11 Ashley KLOTZ / Ilias FOURATI HUN 35.34 19.30 17.04 4.50 4.00 4.35 4.20 4.25 1.00 #12
12 Marie Louise LEUPOLD / Christof Michael STEGER SUI 32.08 17.28 15.80 4.10 3.70 4.05 3.95 3.95 1.00 #3
13 Elizaveta ORLOVA / Stephano Valentino SCHUSTER AUT 30.30 15.10 16.20 3.95 3.85 4.10 4.25 4.10 1.00 #8

Free Dance

Pl. Name Nation TSS
=
TES
+
PCS
+
SS TR PE CO IN Ded.
StN.
1 Sofia POLISHCHUK / Alexander VAKHNOV RUS 89.16 44.76 44.40 7.45 6.95 7.55 7.55 7.50 0.00 #11
2 Anastasia SKOPTCOVA / Kirill ALESHIN RUS 86.98 43.30 43.68 7.20 7.05 7.40 7.35 7.40 0.00 #12
3 Lorraine MCNAMARA / Quinn CARPENTER USA 86.02 37.42 48.60 8.00 7.85 8.20 8.30 8.15 0.00 #13
4 Natacha LAGOUGE / Corentin RAHIER FRA 76.64 38.48 38.16 6.50 6.20 6.35 6.40 6.35 0.00 #9
5 Ashlynne STAIRS / Lee ROYER CAN 73.62 37.56 36.06 6.00 5.85 5.95 6.20 6.05 0.00 #10
6 Maria GOLUBTSOVA / Kirill BELOBROV UKR 70.60 35.44 35.16 5.85 5.45 6.00 5.90 6.10 0.00 #7
7 Sarah Marine ROUFFANCHE / Geoffrey BRISSAUD FRA 68.78 32.34 37.44 6.30 5.95 6.20 6.40 6.35 1.00 #8
8 Leticia MARSH / Anton SPIRIDONOV GBR 60.52 28.36 32.16 5.35 5.00 5.55 5.40 5.50 0.00 #6
9 Elizaveta ORLOVA / Stephano Valentino SCHUSTER AUT 56.26 30.64 25.62 4.30 4.00 4.35 4.45 4.25 0.00 #3
10 Sarah Michelle KNISPEL / Maximilian VOIGTLAENDER GER 51.12 24.94 27.18 4.55 4.30 4.50 4.70 4.60 1.00 #5
11 Elvira NIKOLOVA / Ricards EVELINS BUL 48.22 22.34 26.88 4.60 4.30 4.55 4.60 4.35 1.00 #4
12 Marie Louise LEUPOLD / Christof Michael STEGER SUI 46.64 23.30 23.34 3.95 3.70 4.10 4.00 3.70 0.00 #1
13 Ashley KLOTZ / Ilias FOURATI HUN 45.66 23.32 23.34 4.00 3.75 3.90 3.95 3.85 1.00 #2

Total

FPl. Name Nation Points SD FD
1 Lorraine MCNAMARA / Quinn CARPENTER
USA
148.62 1 3
2 Sofia POLISHCHUK / Alexander VAKHNOV
RUS
144.76 3 1
3 Anastasia SKOPTCOVA / Kirill ALESHIN
RUS
143.78 2 2
4 Natacha LAGOUGE / Corentin RAHIER
FRA
127.70 4 4
5 Ashlynne STAIRS / Lee ROYER
CAN
124.14 5 5
6 Maria GOLUBTSOVA / Kirill BELOBROV
UKR
117.02 7 6
7 Sarah Marine ROUFFANCHE / Geoffrey BRISSAUD
FRA
116.48 6 7
8 Leticia MARSH / Anton SPIRIDONOV
GBR
102.92 8 8
9 Sarah Michelle KNISPEL / Maximilian VOIGTLAENDER
GER
90.68 9 10
10 Elizaveta ORLOVA / Stephano Valentino SCHUSTER
AUT
86.56 13 9
11 Elvira NIKOLOVA / Ricards EVELINS
BUL
85.28 10 11
12 Ashley KLOTZ / Ilias FOURATI
HUN
81.00 11 13
13 Marie Louise LEUPOLD / Christof Michael STEGER
SUI
78.72 12 12

2016 JGP Slovenia Dance Preview

There are just a few teams left to compete that have a chance of qualifying for the Final, but there are also three teams who have yet to start their seasons and could shake up the standings.  Abachkina and Thauron and Carreira and Ponomarenko both have 26 points, while Abachkina and Thauron have put themselves in a better chance for qualifying with a gold medal.

McNamara and Carpenter won a gold medal at JGP Czech Republic.  They can qualify for the Final with a gold or silver medal while a bronze would give them a strong chance.  They have the 2nd best short dance, 4th best free dance and 3rd best total scores.  It is a bit surprising to see them so low on the scores rankings given their domination of the junior circuit last season.  They set a new personal best in the short dance segment at their first event.  Their spin in their free dance only received a Level 2 at that event, costing them about 2 points overall.

Polishchuk and Vakhnov won the bronze at JGP France.  They need a gold medal to give themselves a chance to make the Final while a silver would still keep them in the running.  They have the 10th best short dance, 9th best free dance and 9th best total scores.  They set at new personal best free dance score in France but only received a Level 2 on one of their lifts and one of their step sequences.

Skoptcova and Aleshin are making their season debut and will also compete at JGP Germany.  If they medal here, they’ll give themselves a chance of qualifying for the Final.  They won two medals on the circuit last season and qualified for the Final.

Rouffanche and Brissaud have never medaled on the JGP and may face a tough challenge medaling here, however, if they can land on the podium they’ll have a chance to qualify for the Final at JGP Germany.

 

My podium predictions:

Gold: McNamara/Carpenter

Silver: Polishchuk/Vakhnov

Bronze: Skoptcova/Aleshin

 

Bios of the competitors:

Orlova/Schuster, AUT: They finished 29th at Junior Worlds.  This is their JGP debut.  She is 16 and he is 16.

Nikolova/Evelins, BUL: This is their international debut.  She is 14 and he is 16.

Stairs/Royer, CAN: They placed 7th at JGP France.  Their personal best is 119.59.  She is 16 and he is 18.

Lagouge/Rahier, FRA: They placed 6th at JGP France.  Their personal best is 124.29.  She is 16 and he is 18.

Rouffanche/Brissaud, FRA: They placed 8th at JGP USA and 8th at JGP Poland.  Their personal best is 125.82.  She is 19 and he is 18.

Knispel/Voigtlander, GER: This is their JGP debut.  She is 15 and he is 18.

Marsh/Spiridonov, GBR: This is their JGP debut.  She is 15 and he is 18.

Klotz/Fourati, HUN: They finished 28th at Junior Worlds.  They placed 13th at JGP Slovakia and 14th at JGP USA last season.  Their personal best is 88.80.  She is 16 and he is 18.

Polishcuk/Vakhnov, RUS: They won bronze at JGP France.  Their personal best is 139.23.  She is 15 and he is 17.

Skoptcova/Aleshin, RUS: They won bronze at JGP Poland and silver at JGP Croatia last season to qualify for the Junior Grand Prix Final where they finished 6th.  Their personal best is 148.75.  She is 15 and he is 19.

Leupold/Steger, SUI: This is their international debut.  She is 17 and he is 18.

Golubtsova/Belobrov, UKR: They finished 18th at Junior Worlds.  They placed 10th at JGP Slovakia and 7th at JGP Croatia last season.  Their personal best is 113.57.  She is 15 and he is 15.

McNamara/Carpenter, USA: They are the reigning World Junior Champions.  They won gold at JGP Czech Republic.  They are the 2015 World Junior Silver Medalists.  Their personal best is 163.65.  She is 17 and he is 20.

2016 JGP Czech Republic Dance Results

Short Dance

Pl. Name Nation TSS
=
TES
+
PCS
+
SS TR PE CO IN Ded.
StN.
1 Lorraine MCNAMARA / Quinn CARPENTER USA 66.60 34.26 32.34 7.96 7.79 8.21 8.25 8.21 0.00 #7
2 Nicole KUZMICH / Alexandr SINICYN CZE 55.59 28.31 27.28 6.75 6.50 7.00 6.93 6.93 0.00 #4
3 Arina USHAKOVA / Maxim NEKRASOV RUS 53.46 28.83 25.63 6.43 6.11 6.46 6.54 6.50 1.00 #2
4 Hannah WHITLEY / Elliott GRAHAM CAN 50.39 27.21 23.18 5.86 5.61 5.79 5.89 5.82 0.00 #14
5 Evgeniia LOPAREVA / Alexey KARPUSHOV RUS 49.82 25.71 25.11 6.25 6.14 6.32 6.43 6.25 1.00 #12
6 Chloe LEWIS / Logan BYE USA 49.82 23.91 25.91 6.43 6.36 6.43 6.68 6.50 0.00 #9
7 Danielle WU / Nik MIRZAKHANI CAN 46.49 24.29 22.20 5.68 5.32 5.54 5.68 5.54 0.00 #10
8 Darya POPOVA / Volodymyr BYELIKOV UKR 46.20 22.83 23.37 5.82 5.57 5.89 6.04 5.89 0.00 #3
9 Alexandra BORISOVA / Cezary ZAWADZKI POL 43.49 23.79 19.70 4.96 4.68 4.93 5.18 4.89 0.00 #1
10 Hanna JAKUCS / Daniel ILLES HUN 41.58 21.97 19.61 4.86 4.61 5.04 4.96 5.04 0.00 #15
11 Justine SCACHE / Arnaud CAFFA FRA 39.75 19.24 20.51 5.14 4.96 5.14 5.29 5.11 0.00 #5
12 Adelina ZVEZDOVA / Uladzimir ZAITSAU BLR 36.76 19.52 17.24 4.36 4.07 4.29 4.54 4.29 0.00 #11
13 Nina HOLLOWEY / Fillipp KHARISOV AZE 35.74 18.06 17.68 4.50 4.25 4.46 4.50 4.39 0.00 #8
14 Yana BOZHILOVA / Kaloyan GEORGIEV BUL 34.32 17.35 16.97 4.32 3.96 4.18 4.36 4.39 0.00 #13
WD Salome ABDEDOU / Dylan ANTUNES FRA #6

Free Dance

Pl. Name Nation TSS
=
TES
+
PCS
+
SS TR PE CO IN Ded.
StN.
1 Lorraine MCNAMARA / Quinn CARPENTER USA 92.70 43.88 48.82 8.07 7.93 8.14 8.25 8.29 0.00 #13
2 Nicole KUZMICH / Alexandr SINICYN CZE 87.10 43.85 43.25 7.07 7.00 7.29 7.29 7.39 0.00 #14
3 Arina USHAKOVA / Maxim NEKRASOV RUS 82.64 41.33 41.31 6.82 6.61 6.96 7.00 7.04 0.00 #12
4 Evgeniia LOPAREVA / Alexey KARPUSHOV RUS 77.40 38.27 39.13 6.54 6.29 6.64 6.57 6.57 0.00 #10
5 Chloe LEWIS / Logan BYE USA 76.36 35.61 40.75 6.71 6.61 6.79 6.89 6.96 0.00 #9
6 Hannah WHITLEY / Elliott GRAHAM CAN 75.88 37.64 38.24 6.29 6.14 6.43 6.46 6.54 0.00 #11
7 Danielle WU / Nik MIRZAKHANI CAN 75.57 40.60 34.97 5.79 5.57 5.93 5.89 5.96 0.00 #7
8 Darya POPOVA / Volodymyr BYELIKOV UKR 70.22 33.71 36.51 6.11 5.82 6.00 6.29 6.21 0.00 #8
9 Justine SCACHE / Arnaud CAFFA FRA 60.71 30.48 30.23 5.00 4.79 5.11 5.18 5.11 0.00 #3
10 Alexandra BORISOVA / Cezary ZAWADZKI POL 59.97 29.34 30.63 5.14 4.82 5.11 5.21 5.25 0.00 #5
11 Hanna JAKUCS / Daniel ILLES HUN 59.02 31.19 29.83 5.07 4.79 5.04 5.07 4.89 2.00 #6
12 Adelina ZVEZDOVA / Uladzimir ZAITSAU BLR 53.65 27.60 26.05 4.39 4.14 4.32 4.54 4.32 0.00 #4
13 Yana BOZHILOVA / Kaloyan GEORGIEV BUL 49.09 23.90 26.19 4.43 4.11 4.39 4.50 4.39 1.00 #2
14 Nina HOLLOWEY / Fillipp KHARISOV AZE 47.36 20.91 26.45 4.46 4.18 4.36 4.61 4.43 0.00 #1

Total

FPl. Name Nation Points SD FD
1 Lorraine MCNAMARA / Quinn CARPENTER
USA
159.30 1 1
2 Nicole KUZMICH / Alexandr SINICYN
CZE
142.69 2 2
3 Arina USHAKOVA / Maxim NEKRASOV
RUS
136.10 3 3
4 Evgeniia LOPAREVA / Alexey KARPUSHOV
RUS
127.22 5 4
5 Hannah WHITLEY / Elliott GRAHAM
CAN
126.27 4 6
6 Chloe LEWIS / Logan BYE
USA
126.18 6 5
7 Danielle WU / Nik MIRZAKHANI
CAN
122.06 7 7
8 Darya POPOVA / Volodymyr BYELIKOV
UKR
116.42 8 8
9 Alexandra BORISOVA / Cezary ZAWADZKI
POL
103.46 9 10
10 Hanna JAKUCS / Daniel ILLES
HUN
100.60 10 11
11 Justine SCACHE / Arnaud CAFFA
FRA
100.46 11 9
12 Adelina ZVEZDOVA / Uladzimir ZAITSAU
BLR
90.41 12 12
13 Yana BOZHILOVA / Kaloyan GEORGIEV
BUL
83.41 14 13
14 Nina HOLLOWEY / Fillipp KHARISOV
AZE
83.10 13 14
WD Salome ABDEDOU / Dylan ANTUNES
FRA

2016 JGP Czech Republic Dance Preview

It would be a huge upset if anyone other than McNamara and Carpenter won this event.  Their personal best is nearly 30 points better than anyone else in this field.  They won every single event they entered last season, including the World Junior Championships.  It was a bit of a surprise to see them returning to the JGP circuit this year, but with the US senior ranks so crowded and many of the up and coming dance teams still too young to compete there were very few US teams eligible to compete as juniors this season.  This will be their 5th season on the JGP and they’ve medaled at their last 8 events, including two Finals.  They have a very unique style and had a memorable short dance the last time hip hop was an allowed rhythm so this should play to their strengths this year.

Lewis and Bye had a strong ending to their season last year, winning the silver medal at the Youth Olympic Games.  With both McNamara and Carpenter and the Parsons competing as juniors this year, there is likely only one spot open on the US Junior Worlds team.  They will want to medal at both of their events to give themselves a shot at that last spot.  This will be their 4th season on the Junior Grand Prix and they have yet to take home a medal.  They are fairly consistent, finishing 5th in 4 of their 5 events.

Kuzmich and Sinicyn finished just outside the top 10 at Junior Worlds last year, but had a strong showing to open their season last week at Junior Grand Prix France.  They finished in 4th place and set new personal bests in the short dance and total score.  Competing in back to back events can be difficult, however, as there isn’t a lot of time to make changes and fatigue from travel and being competition ready can be an issue.  They have yet to win a medal on the JGP.

Lopareva and Karpushov are making their international debut after finishing 9th at Russian nationals as juniors last season.  They could definitely be podium contenders here if they can score similarly in front of an international panel.

My podium predictions:

Gold: McNamara/Carpenter

Silver: Lewis/Bye

Bronze: Kuzmich/Sinicyn

Bios of the competitors:

Hollowey/Kharisov, AZE: This is their international debut.  She is 15 and he is 17.

Zvezdova/Zaitsau, BLR: This is their international debut.  She is 14 and he is 16.

Bozhilova/Georgiev, BUL: They finished 31st at Junior Worlds.  They placed 15th at JGP Slovakia and 18th at JGP Croatia last season.  Their personal best is 79.56.  She is 16 and he is 19.

Whitley/Graham, CAN: They finished 7th at JGP Latvia last season.  Their personal best is 115.54.  She is 16 and he is 18.

Wu/Mirzakhani, CAN: This is their JGP debut.  She is 18 and he is 20.

Kuzmich/Sinicyn, CZE: They finished 11th at Junior Worlds.  They placed 4th at JGP France.  Their personal best is 134.42.  She is 18 and he is 20.

Abdedou/Antunes, FRA: They finished 15th at JGP Spain last season.  Their personal best is 82.31.  She is 18 and he is 20.

Scache/Caffa, FRA: This is their JGP debut.  She is 17 and he is 17.

Jakucs/Illes, HUN: They placed 19th at JGP Austria and 13th at JGP Spain last season.  Their personal best is 95.08.  She is 16 and he is 20.

Borisova/Zawadzki, POL: They placed 20th at Junior Worlds.  They finished 11th at JGP France.  Their personal best is 101.38.  She is 17 and he is 19.

Lopareva/Karpushov, RUS: This is their international debut.  She is 16 and he is 19.

Ushakova/Nekrasov, RUS: This is their international debut.  She is 14 and he is 15.

Popova/Byelikov, UKR: This is their international debut.  She is 14 and he is 17.

Lewis/Bye, USA: They placed 5th at JGP USA and 5th at JGP Spain last season.  Their personal best is 138.22.  She is 16 and he is 18.

McNamara/Carpenter, USA: They are the reigning World Junior Champions.  They won gold at JGP USA and gold at JGP Poland last season to qualify for the Junior Grand Prix Final where they won gold.  They are the 2015 World Junior Silver Medalists.  Their personal best is 163.65.  She is 17 and he is 20.

2016 World Junior Championships Dance Results

Short Dance

Pl. Qual. Name Nation TSS
=
TES
+
PCS
+
SS TR PE CC IT Ded.
StN.
1 Q Rachel PARSONS / Michael PARSONS USA 67.88 36.66 31.22 7.79 7.50 7.89 7.89 7.96 0.00 #30
2 Q Lorraine MCNAMARA / Quinn CARPENTER USA 66.25 34.34 31.91 7.93 7.71 8.07 7.96 8.21 0.00 #27
3 Q Marie-Jade LAURIAULT / Romain LE GAC FRA 59.65 31.20 28.45 7.11 6.89 7.21 7.18 7.18 0.00 #18
4 Q Anastasia SHPILEVAYA / Grigory SMIRNOV RUS 59.15 31.70 27.45 6.82 6.64 7.07 6.89 6.89 0.00 #23
5 Q Elliana POGREBINSKY / Alex BENOIT USA 59.05 30.62 28.43 7.11 6.89 7.25 7.11 7.18 0.00 #26
6 Q Alla LOBODA / Pavel DROZD RUS 58.93 29.24 30.69 7.64 7.57 7.61 7.86 7.68 1.00 #31
7 Q Betina POPOVA / Yuri VLASENKO RUS 58.56 29.76 28.80 7.21 7.00 7.29 7.29 7.21 0.00 #29
8 Q Angelique ABACHKINA / Louis THAURON FRA 58.34 30.74 28.60 7.11 6.89 7.25 7.29 7.21 1.00 #28
9 Q Mackenzie BENT / Dmitre RAZGULAJEVS CAN 56.76 29.43 27.33 6.82 6.64 6.93 6.89 6.89 0.00 #16
10 Q Melinda MENG / Andrew MENG CAN 52.60 28.46 25.14 6.32 6.21 6.25 6.39 6.25 1.00 #25
11 Q Marjorie LAJOIE / Zachary LAGHA CAN 52.57 28.40 24.17 6.00 5.79 6.11 6.18 6.14 0.00 #10
12 Q Sara GHISLANDI / Giona Terzo ORTENZI ITA 52.19 24.67 27.52 6.82 6.61 6.89 7.04 7.04 0.00 #22
13 Q Ho Jung LEE / Richard Kang In KAM KOR 50.10 26.30 23.80 5.89 5.71 6.11 6.11 5.93 0.00 #24
14 Q Nicole KUZMICH / Alexandr SINICYN CZE 49.08 23.94 25.14 6.25 6.04 6.46 6.43 6.25 0.00 #19
15 Q Anzhelika YURCHENKO / Volodymyr BYELIKOV UKR 47.66 24.71 22.95 5.82 5.57 5.89 5.79 5.61 0.00 #20
16 Q Maria OLEYNIK / Yuri HULITSKI BLR 45.02 22.85 22.17 5.68 5.46 5.57 5.64 5.36 0.00 #12
17 Q Ria SCHWENDINGER / Valentin WUNDERLICH GER 43.87 23.42 20.45 5.14 4.96 5.18 5.21 5.07 0.00 #14
18 Q Alexandra BORISOVA / Cezary ZAWADZKI POL 42.80 23.49 19.31 4.71 4.71 4.71 5.14 4.86 0.00 #7
19 Q Rikako FUKASE / Aru TATENO JPN 42.63 23.29 19.34 4.68 4.54 5.00 5.00 4.96 0.00 #8
20 Q Maria GOLUBTSOVA / Kirill BELOBROV UKR 42.49 22.81 20.68 5.18 4.96 5.29 5.25 5.18 1.00 #21
21 Xibei LI / Guangyao XIANG CHN 41.16 22.19 18.97 4.79 4.54 4.79 4.93 4.68 0.00 #17
22 Guoste DAMULEVICIUTE / Deividas KIZALA LTU 39.98 20.07 20.91 5.32 5.07 5.14 5.43 5.18 1.00 #15
23 Villö MARTON / Danyil SEMKO HUN 38.63 20.95 17.68 4.43 4.25 4.46 4.57 4.39 0.00 #9
24 Ekaterina FEDYUSHCHENKO / Lucas KITTERIDGE GBR 38.12 20.43 18.69 4.89 4.57 4.79 4.82 4.29 1.00 #13
25 Viktoria SEMENJUK / Artur GRUZDEV EST 37.68 21.20 16.48 4.21 3.93 4.29 4.25 3.93 0.00 #2
26 Jenna HERTENSTEIN / Damian BINKOWSKI POL 37.68 20.85 16.83 4.25 4.18 4.07 4.43 4.11 0.00 #6
27 Hannah Grace COOK / Temirlan YERZHANOV KAZ 37.60 21.26 16.34 4.07 3.93 4.14 4.21 4.07 0.00 #5
28 Kimberly WEI / Illias FOURATI HUN 34.48 17.99 16.49 4.21 4.04 4.11 4.25 4.00 0.00 #3
29 Elizaveta ORLOVA / Stephano Valentino SCHUSTER AUT 32.53 18.22 15.31 3.89 3.75 3.86 4.00 3.64 1.00 #4
30 Matilda FRIEND / William BADAOUI AUS 31.98 16.84 15.14 3.96 3.54 3.86 3.89 3.68 0.00 #11
31 Yana BOZHILOVA / Kaloyan GEORGIEV BUL 28.27 15.27 14.00 3.64 3.32 3.50 3.71 3.32 1.00 #1

Free Dance

  Pl. Name Nation TSS
=
TES
+
PCS
+
SS TR PE CC IT Ded.
StN.
1 Lorraine MCNAMARA / Quinn CARPENTER USA 97.40 47.85 49.55 8.21 8.14 8.29 8.29 8.36 0.00 #20
2 Rachel PARSONS / Michael PARSONS USA 94.86 46.34 48.52 8.11 7.93 8.14 8.14 8.11 0.00 #18
3 Alla LOBODA / Pavel DROZD RUS 92.26 44.42 47.84 7.93 7.89 7.93 8.07 8.04 0.00 #13
4 Elliana POGREBINSKY / Alex BENOIT USA 87.78 43.24 44.54 7.39 7.14 7.54 7.50 7.54 0.00 #17
5 Betina POPOVA / Yuri VLASENKO RUS 87.65 42.11 45.54 7.50 7.39 7.64 7.71 7.71 0.00 #14
6 Anastasia SHPILEVAYA / Grigory SMIRNOV RUS 87.40 42.68 44.72 7.43 7.25 7.54 7.54 7.50 0.00 #19
7 Angelique ABACHKINA / Louis THAURON FRA 86.91 42.74 44.17 7.32 7.14 7.46 7.43 7.46 0.00 #15
8 Marie-Jade LAURIAULT / Romain LE GAC FRA 84.61 38.84 45.77 7.57 7.43 7.64 7.79 7.71 0.00 #16
9 Mackenzie BENT / Dmitre RAZGULAJEVS CAN 81.85 38.57 43.28 7.21 7.04 7.32 7.29 7.21 0.00 #11
10 Nicole KUZMICH / Alexandr SINICYN CZE 79.83 39.71 40.12 6.64 6.43 6.82 6.75 6.79 0.00 #7
11 Sara GHISLANDI / Giona Terzo ORTENZI ITA 78.99 36.78 42.21 6.82 6.75 7.18 7.11 7.32 0.00 #8
12 Melinda MENG / Andrew MENG CAN 76.23 36.63 39.60 6.68 6.46 6.61 6.71 6.54 0.00 #12
13 Marjorie LAJOIE / Zachary LAGHA CAN 75.49 37.32 38.17 6.29 6.11 6.43 6.54 6.43 0.00 #9
14 Ho Jung LEE / Richard Kang In KAM KOR 69.03 34.57 34.46 5.79 5.46 5.86 5.75 5.86 0.00 #6
15 Ria SCHWENDINGER / Valentin WUNDERLICH GER 65.13 34.05 31.08 5.32 4.86 5.29 5.25 5.18 0.00 #5
16 Anzhelika YURCHENKO / Volodymyr BYELIKOV UKR 64.99 29.11 35.88 6.07 5.79 6.07 6.04 5.93 0.00 #10
17 Maria GOLUBTSOVA / Kirill BELOBROV UKR 63.41 33.42 29.99 5.11 4.82 5.14 5.11 4.82 0.00 #1
18 Maria OLEYNIK / Yuri HULITSKI BLR 61.29 28.71 32.58 5.57 5.18 5.50 5.61 5.29 0.00 #2
19 Rikako FUKASE / Aru TATENO JPN 59.47 28.91 30.56 5.18 4.89 5.25 5.18 4.96 0.00 #4
20 Alexandra BORISOVA / Cezary ZAWADZKI POL 57.51 27.97 29.54 4.96 4.68 5.00 5.04 4.93 0.00 #3

Total

FPl. Name Nation Points SD FD
1 Lorraine MCNAMARA / Quinn CARPENTER
USA
163.65 2 1
2 Rachel PARSONS / Michael PARSONS
USA
162.74 1 2
3 Alla LOBODA / Pavel DROZD
RUS
151.19 6 3
4 Elliana POGREBINSKY / Alex BENOIT
USA
146.83 5 4
5 Anastasia SHPILEVAYA / Grigory SMIRNOV
RUS
146.55 4 6
6 Betina POPOVA / Yuri VLASENKO
RUS
146.21 7 5
7 Angelique ABACHKINA / Louis THAURON
FRA
145.25 8 7
8 Marie-Jade LAURIAULT / Romain LE GAC
FRA
144.26 3 8
9 Mackenzie BENT / Dmitre RAZGULAJEVS
CAN
138.61 9 9
10 Sara GHISLANDI / Giona Terzo ORTENZI
ITA
131.18 12 11
11 Nicole KUZMICH / Alexandr SINICYN
CZE
128.91 14 10
12 Melinda MENG / Andrew MENG
CAN
128.83 10 12
13 Marjorie LAJOIE / Zachary LAGHA
CAN
128.06 11 13
14 Ho Jung LEE / Richard Kang In KAM
KOR
119.13 13 14
15 Anzhelika YURCHENKO / Volodymyr BYELIKOV
UKR
112.65 15 16
16 Ria SCHWENDINGER / Valentin WUNDERLICH
GER
109.00 17 15
17 Maria OLEYNIK / Yuri HULITSKI
BLR
106.31 16 18
18 Maria GOLUBTSOVA / Kirill BELOBROV
UKR
105.90 20 17
19 Rikako FUKASE / Aru TATENO
JPN
102.10 19 19
20 Alexandra BORISOVA / Cezary ZAWADZKI
POL
100.31 18 20
Xibei LI / Guangyao XIANG
CHN
FNR 21
Guoste DAMULEVICIUTE / Deividas KIZALA
LTU
FNR 22
Villö MARTON / Danyil SEMKO
HUN
FNR 23
Ekaterina FEDYUSHCHENKO / Lucas KITTERIDGE
GBR
FNR 24
Viktoria SEMENJUK / Artur GRUZDEV
EST
FNR 25
Jenna HERTENSTEIN / Damian BINKOWSKI
POL
FNR 26
Hannah Grace COOK / Temirlan YERZHANOV
KAZ
FNR 27
Kimberly WEI / Illias FOURATI
HUN
FNR 28
Elizaveta ORLOVA / Stephano Valentino SCHUSTER
AUT
FNR 29
Matilda FRIEND / William BADAOUI
AUS
FNR 30
Yana BOZHILOVA / Kaloyan GEORGIEV
BUL
FNR 31